March 2020

 

 

 

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Looking in towards El Tesoro Beach

 

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Tuesday March 10th 2020

Today Mainly sunny. Wind up to 15 km/h. High plus 5. Wind chill minus 9 this morning. UV index 4 or moderate.
Tonight A few clouds. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 5. Wind chill minus 9 overnight.

I woke at two and checked my cameras.  I see a bright light on the camera that points out the driveway.  I gather they are still working on the problem. The train appears to be gone, but I imagine the truck full of propane is still on its side.  The timestamp is an hour off from here because Swalwell has switched to summer time.  Here, we have not, yet.

I got up at seven and listened to the net. I have a dentist appointment to have one crown replaced at noon uptown.

*   *   *   *   *   *

Wikipedia Deletes “List of Scientists who Disagree with the Scientific Consensus on Global Warming” in Astonishing Act of Censorship

Wikipedia:Articles for deletion/List of scientists who disagree with the scientific consensus on global warming

Wikipedia: A Disinformation Operation?
I'd already noticed that Wikipedia was getting biased.

I have reduced my use of Google for searches for the same reason: censorship and bias. It seems we are entering a dark time after a brief enlightenment.

Mid-day, Swalwell residents were allowed to return home.  C writes...

Home now after 28 hours... It's true and it was horrible... We all could have been blown to bits and I would have been the first house off the map, however, the entire Hamlet would be gone, you can believe it.

A. was outside helping the driver out of the truck which was laying w/one of the B-train tankers on the drivers side in front of my house, and the other B-train tanker was on your side of the tracks leaking propane. A. is now really sick and because she had to go to Calgary this morning after a horrendous night ...

God and the Angels were watching over us as the train hit the B-train in between the two tankers. Had it hit one of the tankers and there was an explosion, we would all be w/the angels right now.

It took 30 years, however, the law of averages says eventually someone or something will get hit at that crossing and I have been expecting it, just not as serious as this turned out to be, however, no one was killed or injured, thank God.

Me: Glad to hear that all is well.  Is it all cleaned up now?

Yes, it was extremely serious a B-train w/two huge tankers full of propane. It was billowing out of them like crazy and the slightest spark could have triggered an explosion. I think they did a great job, although, I was w/friends and safe, it was very stressful. I also didn't realize the propane is treated so it can be seen like smoke, however, as it is heavier than air it was billowing across the ground and lucky their was a wind taking it under the train but travelling north.
 

I showered and called Uber, arriving at Clinica Cosmedent right at noon.  I spent an hour in the chair, then Uber took me to my bank. Before going in, though, I had lunch at a Chinese take-out next door in the strip mall.

From there, I walked over to Chedraui and shopped a while, buying only some butter and an avocado, then walked out to Abosolo, caught a collectivo to Legaspy and walked to the boat.

I did a hand laundry then had a nap.  I have been exhausted lately.

The Wuflu is finally being taken seriously and the news is full of it.  I don't know what to think.

I assume I will catch it sooner or later.  Will it kill me?  Who knows? I'm long past my best-before date.

Sailors have done so much with so little for so long
that we can do practically anything with nothing.

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Wednesday March 11th 2020

Today Mainly sunny. Wind up to 15 km/h. High plus 5. Wind chill minus 10 this morning. UV index 3 or moderate.
Tonight A few clouds. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 10. Wind chill minus 13 overnight.

I woke at three-thirty and am feeling better than I have in a while. Hope this lasts.

Although the days have been unseasonably cool and breezy, the last two nights have been warm and both nights I have left the companionway and windows open.  Bugs are not an issue here, although I encountered a few houseflies and fruit flies when I was out at Bahia Falsa.

*   *   *   *   *   *

The Wuflu is all over the news, so I'll mostly leave it alone.  It sounds as if major events are being cancelled in the US and Canada.  I hear that the first case has been discovered in Sudbury.

It is now one week until Gillian arrives, after flying from New Zealand to San Francisco and then here, assuming everything is not locked down by then.

The tipping points show up suddenly. We've already passed several, but the next one will be the 'Oh Shit' moment when it is everywhere all the time. 

The following article describes what happens when something doubles every day, week, or year.

When a danger is growing exponentially, everything looks fine until it doesn’t

Where were all the 'precautionary principle' people who shut down everything with even minor or unproven risk when this one came along?  It was obvious from the start that we would come to this and there is more to come.

(Yeah, I know.  I used Wikipedia in spite it being discredited due to proven intellectual dishonesty on contentious issues.  On such uncontentious matters, it tends to be accurate.)

Yesterday, I installed Adguard and uninstalled my other ad blocker. It made a difference.

Today, after a day with Adblock, I did some additional configuring.  Suddenly my browsing, which had been slowing, is fast again. 

Over time, the increasing burden that trackers, ads, and referrers built into on web pages has become huge.  To load a typical site, the browser has to make calls to many tracking and ad sites and each call adds latency due to the each DNS request and the propagation times.  If any of the multitude of servers is slow to respond, so is the page. Some pages never completely load for that reason.

Filtering out the trackers and ads reduces the page load by maybe three quarters or more.  The difference is very noticable.
 

A common artificial sweetener might be making you fatter and sicker
There is no free lunch.

Well, this looks like SHTF day. Denial is a thing of the past.  We have seen the warmup.  Now the capitulation begins.  A waterfall is next.

Looking at the Canadian market, I got out at 13,000 the day I had my heart episode on Aug 24th 2015.  We are now within striking distance of that number again now at 14394.  Three more days like this and we are there. Again.

Dow Jones Industrial $INDU 23,553.22 -1,464.94 662,905,349
S&P 500 $SPX 2,741.38 -140.85 4,225,881,631
Nasdaq Composite $@CCO 7,952.0512 -392.2017  
S&P TSX Composite TI0000 14,270.09 -688.00 468,990,909
S&P TSX 60 TITX60 854.67 -38.95 242,218,919
S&P TSX Venture VIJX 438.87 -25.87 77,076,419
London Gold Fix $GFL 1,655.70 -16.80  
$Canadian Dollar FX$CAD/USD 0.7266 -0.0019  

         

I watched a bit more Cheers and went to bed around nine.

Trouble knocked at the door, but, hearing laughter, hurried away
Benjamin Franklin

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Thursday March 12th 2020

Today A mix of sun and cloud. 30 percent chance of flurries early this morning and late this afternoon. Wind northwest 20 km/h becoming northeast 20 this afternoon. High plus 1. Wind chill minus 15 this morning. UV index 3 or moderate.
Tonight Mainly cloudy. 30 percent chance of flurries this evening. Periods of snow beginning near midnight. Local amount 2 to 4 cm. Wind northeast 20 km/h becoming light this evening. Low minus 11. Wind chill minus 7 this evening and minus 17 overnight.

I woke at two and got up.  I'm wondering if I am  getting a cold. My throat is a bit dry. Maybe I slept with my mouth open? I wasn't sleeping well.

I made coffee and had eggs for breakfast.  I'll go back to bed but have doubts I'll sleep well.

Brian T. sent me a link the other day and I did not get around to using it.  Looking now, I see the latest post there is one I can heartily agree with.

Looking at the Dow futures, I see they are down over 1100 1200 and accelerating to the downside as I write.  I saw an article that says retail investors are buying.  Not a good sign.

Here is some sober thought from
the "giant vampire squid"
Goldman Sachs analyzed bear markets back to 1835, and here’s the bad news — and the good — about the current slump
What do I know??? But IMO, this bear is all of the above wrapped up in one
-- structural, cyclical, and event-driven --
So, where is the bottom?

There are four reported cases of the Wuflu in The Baja now, so I wonder where things go from here.  Everything is converging. 

A friend sent me an email note pointing out that travel health insurance may exclude pandemics.  Hmmmm.

I read my policy and there is no such exclusion on mine.  That is good to know.  I'll need to extend it since I'll be here more than the 30 days it covers.  I'll have to renew by the 22nd or so.  I'll put that off, though. Right now, who knows what will happen day-to-day?

At 7 AM here in Baja California Sur, the Dow is down 1,870.40 and the TSX 60 is down 1309 at 12,960.96.  Hmmm.  That is just exactly where I got off that merry-go-round back in 2015!  It was starting to look too much like a casino. Look what I missed.

The chart timeframe is five years. The red rectangle marks the current bid. We're all the way back to the beginning.

As a kid we sometimes played Snakes and ladders at the cottage and I hated that game.  You could get right to the last squares and be about to win, then land on a snake that went almost down to the start again. I have never liked losing.

 

Here is Chris Martensen's instructive video

The other day I knocked a piece off my outboard hydrofoil and today I paid a diver 200 pesos to look but he could not find it.

What am I doing today?  It is beautiful, warm and sunny.  I'm doing cleaning and throwing things out.  I'm also downloading Linux Mint Cinnamon 19.3 (Tricia).  I had the previous version running in a VM on this laptop, but I never have any luck updating from one release to another so am starting over.

One thing to watch if running Linux beside or inside Windows is the danger of corrupting files if directories are shared. Be warned.

This boat was set up for going offshore and had all the latest, plus spares of everything.  I'm never going to be more than a week from a repair facility, so I am cleaning house.

Black Thursday:
"One Giant Margin Call" Drags Dow Down 10%

Checking at Worldometers again and looking at the charts, they seem to be leveling off somewhat and the log charts are turning flatter, so maybe things are nit as bad as they sound now.  That does not mean that a lot of people won't be sick and many more won't die, but the rte of increase seems to be tapering. Of course this could just be an artifact of the changing reporting levels and perhaps lowered vigilance as the matter becomes less novel and remarkable. People can get used to anything.

Of course it is still serious.  Read this:

YOUNG AND UNAFRAID OF THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC? GOOD FOR YOU. NOW STOP KILLING PEOPLE

When a girl marries she exchanges the attentions of many men for the inattention of one.
Helen Rowland

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Friday March 13th 2020

Today Periods of snow and local blowing snow. Amount 2 to 4 cm. Wind northeast 30 km/h gusting to 50. Temperature falling to minus 14 this afternoon. Wind chill minus 18 this morning and minus 25 this afternoon. UV index 1 or low.
Tonight Snow and local blowing snow. Amount 2 to 4 cm. Wind northeast 30 km/h gusting to 50. Low minus 18. Wind chill near minus 28. Risk of frostbite.

I'm thinking of going to the bays today. I can clean and discard just as well at anchor as here in town.

IMO, You have to be born yesterday to fall for the climate hype.  Here is an excellent blog with some interesting links, including a lot of links to scientists who disagree with  the fake consensus. Some people have a lot more time and intellect to dig deep that I do.

Some notes for climate skeptics

I have no need or time to check it all out, but assume if you read my diary you have a critical mind and will do so to the extent necessary to decide.

Conrad Black: Coronavirus' political toll
Conrad Black is very smart and well-connected. 
His insights are always worth reading.

It looks as if the infection rate and the death rate is trending up again slightly.  I present both linear and log plots.

Bumps in the trends are as likely due to reporting discrepancies between jurisdictions as actual cases. All this data is really, really questionable.

At eleven, I untied and motored out of my mooring. There was not much wind, but the breeze and tide were with me as I headed north.  At Punta Prieta, the wind picked up and carried me to Punta Colorado.  There the wind shifted but I sailed right to the anchorage and dropped anchor.  This time, I made sure the clutch did not slip and I was securely anchored first try. 

*    *    *    *   *   *   *

Looks as if I even if I had doubts and decided to go home, I am committed to staying here in Mexico although Mexico is not overseas and has few confirmed cases.

Federal ministers announce international travel restrictions to prevent coronavirus spread
Overseas flights coming into Canada will soon only be allowed to land at a limited number of airports, which have yet to be announced

Moreover, United informs me that my flight from Sudbury which I have yet to cancel because I was waiting for a no-penalty cancellation would not allow me on board so I'm guessing I'll be able to cancel with a refund. Bonus!

How bad is this disease?  Seems that for many it is a non-event.  I wonder why some and not others.

These Canadians who caught novel coronavirus say they barely knew they were infected
'Don’t blow things out of proportion. You don’t need to get three months’ worth of toilet paper.… You can get over it fairly easily'

Common sense is the collection of prejudices acquired by age eighteen.
Albert Einstein

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Saturday March 14th 2020

Today Snow and local blowing snow. Amount 2 to 4 cm. Wind northeast 30 km/h gusting to 50. High minus 13. Wind chill minus 33 this morning and minus 22 this afternoon. Risk of frostbite. UV index 1 or low.
Tonight Light snow ending this evening then partly cloudy. Wind northeast 20 km/h gusting to 40 becoming light this evening. Low minus 24. Wind chill minus 20 this evening and minus 31 overnight. Risk of frostbite.
 

I woke up at seven full of energy and went up top to enjoy the sunrise.  The dinghy needed air so I pumped it up and was contemplating going in for a dip when MLE texted me pictures of the burner.  The ring has stalled again.

We talked and she will work on it.  If she cannot make it work, then I'll have to go home.  I checked and I still can, apparently. Mexico is not banned.  In fact there is almost no coronavirus in all of Mexico. 

This from an article about southeastern Mexico:
"He stressed that the good news regarding the virus’ behavior is that it does not seem to survive temperatures above roughly 75 degrees Fahrenheit and that humid climates are not conducive to its transmission, which is an advantage for the entire Yucatan Peninsula."

That may apply here, too. Chris Martensen yesterday mentioned the temperature and high humidity range that seems to provide protection and that is the weather here at this time of year.

When I think of going home, I realise that I have a temporary cap that will not be replaced with the permanent crown until next Thursday.  If I go home, that would be a problem.  I really need to find a solution that does not require me to fly home.

What does the coronavirus do to your body? Everything to know about the infection process

What will I do today? 

Well, I'll wait for word from MLE, then decide.  I can get a flight tomorrow to get me home before midnight, but then I am home.  What then?  I may reserve a flight.  I can cancel within 24 hrs without penalty.  I should also cancel my United flight.  I knew I would not use it some time back, but have waited for a no penalty cancelation policy.

I'll get to work tidying the boat and probably head back to the dock in the afternoon.

I'm trying to reach United Airlines to cancel, but the website is not responding.

The news is extremely conflicting with news of bodes piling up and other equally convincing reports saying the sickness is much like a flu unless there are complications.  Our Prime Minister is not even bothering being tested and showing up in public.  What does that say?  Of course, he does not have a reputation for much common sense.

I'm in the target age group and have some mild pre-existing conditions. The last time I had the flu twenty-five years ago, it was bad enough to give me mild pneumonia.  I recovered without ever seeking a doctor, so who knows?

I'm going to dinghy ashore and take a hike up the hill north of this bay and worry later.

I did just that and it was a very interesting hike. I covered about two miles including the ride ashore.  The climb was fairly steep over rough terrain and through thorns, but the view was spectacular.

C sent me a picture of the truck/train collision taken from my side of the tracks.  The B-train was split in half by the train and the leaking half was on my side.  The white smoke is propane.  The propane coming off the spilled liquid is so cold that it makes steam of the moisture in the air.  It is like like breath on a cold day.

At two, I set sail for La Paz to arrive in time for tidal slack at four.

I arrived on time and prepared to back down the narrow channel to my dock.  The wind had picked up as I approached and I was under sail until I arrived.  When I got to the entrance, I was unable to keep the boat straight so I decided to tie up at the end dock for a while and not chance going in until things calmed down.

After a while the wind slacked a bit and I decide to chance it.  I tried many times, but each time I approached the entrance the wind still blew the bow around and I had to abort.

I gave up and went out to change the fenders and lines to the other side so I could go in forwards.  That took a while and when I was done I simply motored in and tied up.

My neighbours had been watching and were there to catch lines.  I usually don't like assistance, but once in awhile it is very handy so I don't complain.

I tied up with the stern out and had supper, got a message from MLE showing the burner working properly and managed to contact United to cancel my flight from YSB to SJD.  There is no penalty due to the Wuflu, so now I have a credit with United.

A reader sent me this interesting article about Zero Hedge.

I found the article quite amusing and confused and--from a Canadian perspective--somewhat obsessed with Russia. The language and assumptions are hugely slanted and all in all the entire matter is amusing--to me at least.  One has to appreciate the Slavic sense of humour to see how this guy went for a ride.

Russia is our other next door neighbour and the country that probably was pivotal in beating the Nazis, but to the US, Russia is a bogeyman. Russia is no more likely to try to steal territory Canada has claimed historically that the US is. Check it out.

Moreover, I'm fairly sure that Putin is no worse than any recent US president and anything that can be said about Russian interference into the affairs of other countries and assassinations, etc. can probably be said doubly about the US, including the Bolshevik Revolution.  Just sayin'

I like to hear from both sides and include Al Jazeera sometimes.  I had high hopes for Al Jazeera and thought we'd get a new and unique slant, but Al Jazeera turned out to be a disappointment and just another establishment lapdog. You can get most of their content anywhere. 

I like ZH because in spite of the craziness, there is a lot of good info and opinion that is hard to find.  It is not for the gullible, though.

Zero Hedge Reputation   vs.   New Republic Reputation

  They are both a little nuts. What can I say?

Therefore do not worry about tomorrow,
for tomorrow will worry about its own things.
Sufficient for the day is its own trouble.
Matthew 6:34

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Sunday March 15th 2020
"Beware the Ides of March"

Today Mainly cloudy with 30 percent chance of flurries this morning. Clearing this morning. Wind up to 15 km/h. High minus 8. Wind chill minus 28 this morning and minus 11 this afternoon. Risk of frostbite. UV index 4 or moderate.
Tonight Clear. Becoming partly cloudy this evening. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 23. Wind chill minus 11 this evening and minus 28 overnight. Risk of frostbite.

I woke up at four-twenty and started the day.

California Governor Issues Executive Order Allowing State To Commandeer Hotels, Motels For Coronavirus Patients

I spent too much time here at the keyboard and then reserved a flight home on the 17th just in case. The virus is here, just as I assumed it must be.

I plan to cancel within the 24 hour window, but have the flight if I need it. The flights over the next two days appear full as the price went up from $280 to $1300 overnight.  People are taking the Canadian government's advice and heading home. Frankly, I am not sure that things will be any better there than here, but as things are avalanching I figured to keep an escape hatch open.

The S**t Might Actually Be Hitting The Fan But Somehow It Doesn't Feel Real

Elderly could be quarantined for four months in 'wartime-style' mobilisation to combat coronavirus

I went to the swap meet and did not buy anything.  I took a TV that came with the boat and an extra dinghy air pump and they did not sell so I put them on the giveaway table.

Now I am contemplating and thinking I'll go to Chedraui for more beans and rice. I need eggs and fruit, too.

I really should learn to fish.

I returned from the store and put things away. And, yes the S* is hitting the fan.

Debugging is twice as hard as writing the code in the first place.
Therefore, if you write the code as cleverly as possible,
you are, by definition, not smart enough to debug it.
Brian Kernighan

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Monday March 16th 2020

Today Sunny. Wind up to 15 km/h. High plus 2. Wind chill minus 22 this morning. UV index 4 or moderate.
Tonight Clear. Becoming partly cloudy near midnight. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 13. Wind chill minus 16 overnight.

I woke up very early and started my day.  After reading the news, I cancelled my flight home.  I see there are still flights to YYC for the foreseeable future at good prices.

I've been uncharacteristically active on Facebook:


 

Infected people without symptoms might be driving the spread of coronavirus more than we realized

Well, I have the day ahead of me.  What to do?  I've done about as much research as I should for now.  I have some bookwork to do and should get down to that.  I still have to sort stuff on the boat and organize the storage better. Maybe I'll wash the boat, too.

I may take a trip to Walmart.  We'll see.

Almost forgot to check the markets.  No point though, it is freefall with no bottom in sight.  Glad I'm not invested.

I see the Canadian market is now below where I exited. The US market is in a waterfall decline but is still above the level five years back.

Why draconian measures may not work: Two experts say we should prioritize those at risk from COVID-19 than to try to contain the uncontainable

These Canadians who caught novel coronavirus say they barely knew they were infected

From The Globe & Mail

"Can I know if I have coronavirus without being tested?"
If you are infected, you will likely develop symptoms such as dry cough, fever and shortness of breath, two to 14 days after exposure. Public-health officials recommend that you call 811 (or 1-866-797-0000 in Ontario) where you will be asked some screening questions and told if you should be tested or not. Keep in mind, however, that the testing guidelines are changing rapidly, especially now that tests are running low. 811 lines are overwhelmed. You may get a busy signal or wait hours for a call back. To avoid making unnecessary calls, first use self-assessment tools. One of the best is on the Alberta Health Services website.

However, if you have symptoms such as serious shortness of breath or difficulty breathing, persistent pain or pressure in the chest, confusion, the inability to be aroused, or bluish lips or face (signs of oxygen deprivation), you should call 911 immediately.

"Quebec is telling everyone over the age of 70 to stay home for at least two to three weeks.

I’m 75. I’m healthy and have no symptoms. Should I stay home?"
So far, the global data show that people older than 70 (and 80 in particular) have dramatically higher death rates than younger people. But most of those deaths are among people with underlying chronic conditions. Quebec says its recommendations are being made “out of an abundance of caution.”

The province is especially concerned about older citizens in care, so it has banned all visitors to nursing homes and long-term care facilities. So, should a healthy 75-year-old self-isolate? You should definitely practice social distancing – minimize your contacts with others – but a walk or a trip to the store for groceries probably won’t hurt.

"How is coronavirus treated?"
There is no specific treatment for COVID-19. Only the symptoms can be treated. If you have mild symptoms such as a cough and fever, then you need rest, plenty of fluids and maybe bubbe’s chicken soup. Fever can be treated with medications such as acetaminophen (Tylenol) or NSAIDs like ibuprofen (Advil, Motrin), but you should not treat fever with ASA-based painkillers such as Aspirin, especially in children. The French health minister (who is also doctor) has said that NSAIDs can worsen symptoms but, according to pharmacologist Dr. David Juurlink that claim “is not based on very much.”

Antibiotics do not help; they only work for bacterial illnesses. There are no licensed antivirals for COVID-19 but one drug, Remdesivir, is being studied and used experimentally.

In more serious cases, COVID-19 patients may develop pneumonia (inflammation or fluid build-up in the lungs) and a physician may prescribe steroids.

In the most severe cases, people can develop acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and require breathing support, a ventilator or ECMO (extracorporeal machine oxygenation). ARDS is what kills.

*   *   *   *   *   *

I asked about acetaminophen yesterday at Chedraui and the pharmacist looked on the computer. Apparently it is unknown here.

*   *   *   *   *   *

The markets closed down again today.

Dow Jones Industrial $INDU 20,188.52 -2,997.10 770,132,622
S&P 500 $SPX 2,386.13 -324.89 4,600,783,654
Nasdaq Composite $@CCO 6,904.5923 -970.2831  
S&P TSX Composite TI0000 12,360.40 -1,355.93 514,398,332
S&P TSX 60 TITX60 745.79 -82.98 261,458,476
S&P TSX Venture VIJX 366.46 -24.66 122,943,447
London Gold Fix $GFL 1,562.80 -7.90  
$Canadian Dollar FX$CAD/USD 0.7139 -0.0104  

 

The Canadian dollar is the most annoying.  My marina here in Mexico charges in USD.

Self Assessment

Once again, I spent too much time browsing and puttering but did get a fair bit of cleanup and sorting done. 

In the process, I troubleshot the solar vent I had taken off and found the motor is shot.  The commutator brushes are worn out and are not replaceable.  Too bad, because for a $2 toy motor a $250 US vent is shot. 

I searched Amazon and see I can get similar motors for almost nothing but would have to match the dimensions and electrical characteristics and they are not given.  I also wrote the manufacturer on the chance they offer replacements.  They do offer other parts on their website.

I also looked over the dive gear the neighbour dropped off on my deck.  The men's BCD barely fits and is a bit tight as I have allowed myself to get a bit oversize again.  I don't really know if I need the equipment, but am looking.  G is an experienced diver and dive gear is something I've always considered getting. This is an opportunity.

I quit at dusk, which is about six-thirty here and went below. My daughter had written and mentioned that if I don't go home now, it is hard to say when I will be able.  I spent a lot of time thinking about that.

My mind is made up, but as always, subject to change. G is coming Wednesday afternoon and my crown goes on Thursday.  So far, there has been little concern here about the virus, but we did have one transient case we know about.  Like the spread of the infection itself, awareness grows slowly but then suddenly explodes so I am hoping that I make it under the wire before the dentist decides working so intimately with people is dangerous.

Canada has gone nuts and toggled from nonchalance to panic and I suspect the stock market drops have exacerbated the panic as people see their imagined net worth evaporate.  Paper gains, paper losses.

Not only that the real estate markets and pretty well everything else are being shut down or seizing up. I don't know which is worse, the disease or the counter measures, but people being people, when faced with a threat simply have to do something--anything--to feel in control of a uncontrollable situation.

No matter what is done it will be criticized by one faction or another and doing nothing will draw fire from all sides.

MLE texted that my furnace is acting up again.  Now, there is a real reason to go home, but when I look at the Canada panel at this site, I have to say WTF? What are they thinking?  Overreaction?? I think so.

Girls do not dress for boys. They dress for themselves, of course, each other.
If girls dressed for boys, they'd just walk around naked at all times.
Betsey Johnson

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Tuesday March 17th 2020

Today A mix of sun and cloud. Becoming cloudy near noon with 60 percent chance of flurries this afternoon. Wind becoming north 20 km/h gusting to 40 this morning. High minus 1. Wind chill minus 17 this morning and minus 7 this afternoon. UV index 4 or moderate.
Tonight Cloudy with 60 percent chance of flurries. Wind north 20 km/h gusting to 40 becoming light this evening. Low minus 13. Wind chill minus 8 this evening and minus 16 overnight.

It's 0330 and I am up, drinking coffee and writing.  The night is cool and I have closed up the hatches.  The breeze is blowing offshore from the east at the moment and the rigging is making music.

I see the Dow futures are down 2997 at the moment. The bottom is falling out.  Looking at the world virus report, the total infections don't seem very high, actually, at 184,834 but I really don't know how they make up that number.  The death rate is a matter of debate still.  IMO The demographics and co-morbidity numbers are probably a useful estimate. 80% of cases are still reported to be 'mild'. Symptoms.

I checked Facebook and there was an important fresh post. (right)

After the news that our Prime Minister told Canadians to go home to Canada right away, Westjet is cutting off service here after the 22nd.  Of course prices have jumped.

This getting really nuts.  I grabbed a seat on the 22nd just in case.

In Canada, our government and more of it's 'help' is not the solution.  Government is the problem. Always.

Why Canadians would go home is a good question, especially as the trip is bound to expose us to risk and then we will be back there supposedly self quarantined while the economy collapses. 

Not only that, this brings a surge of likely carriers together and seeds them through communities.  What do you think people do first when getting home?  Shop for food.  They have no real choice.

I really need to think about this, but of course there is the furnace to consider. MLE is on it, though.

Canada has very little Wuflu and is inflicting incredible economic harm on the country in what I am thinking is a panic reaction and a futile gesture. Our Prime minister's prime talent is virtue signaling and it is costing us over and over.

A short pain is not like a long pain. (Chinese proverb).  We are setting ourselves up for a long pain.

A reader wrote:

Acetaminophen might be called paracetamol, or APAP (abbreviated from N-acetyl-para-aminophenol) in Mexico (it is in other places).

I hit reply to thank her, but the email address was invalid.  Thanks.  I did see that product but did not know what it  was.

I've had breakfast and now, back to bed.

I slept well and woke at 0740.  I checked Facebook and see Rick caught something I missed when reading the announcement, if in fact I saw the entire announcement.  The suspension is for 30 days.

Looking at the worldwide cases, things do not make sense.  Out of billions of people, we only have maybe 100,000 cases?

(Note: That must have been a glitch in the website because not long after the numbers made more sense.)

As with many things, what is best for the crowd is the opposite of what is best for the individual. All the current recommendations are to the benefit of society as a whole, but may conflict with what is good for any one person.  This whole thing requires deep thought.

Question: Our prime minister has been exposed to his wife who tested positive for a week now. What kind of shape are they in? Does not sound as if Sophie is in bad shape. Why don't we know?  Maybe because knowing would contradict the narrative being pushed on us?

Okay, I guess. It is over a week for her and a week+/- for the family. Incubation period is 2 - 14 days with possible outliers: 0 - 27 days

People are starting to worry around here.  Although there are no confirmed cases, there are suspected cases. 

This group consists of people mostly over fifty and this is a group more likely to have a serious case.  I have to remember that I am seventy-five although it hardly feels like it. I also was a smoker at one time.  Not good.

I'll continue to tidy and get ready to go sailing and see when/if G gets here what things look like then.

My neighbour, Rob and his wife Linda plan to leave to tomorrow morning for a trip up the sea of indeterminate length.

A thoughtful read.
If This Is Contrived Political Hysteria, What Is The Objective?
Good question.  Assuming the Italy numbers given in the article are correct...

I phoned Oene and my cousin, Don, and chatted and the more I think about it, the more staying here makes sense.

Good News: Healthy People Can Recover from COVID-19 in Three Days

Researchers tested the immune response to COVID-19 in an otherwise healthy woman in her 40s, who required hospital admission (Nature Medicine, March 16, 2020). Three days after the patient was admitted, her immune system produced huge amounts of several immune cells that are used to show that a person will recover from a seasonal influenza infection. This indicates that she had recovered in three days. Even though COVID-19 is caused by a brand-new virus never seen before, an otherwise healthy person was able to develop a healthy and normal immune response that signifies recovery. This helps to explain why more than 80 percent of COVID-19 cases are mild-to-moderate. However, other studies show that people can continue to shed the virus for 10-37 days (The Lancet, March 11, 2020), so they may still be contagious.

The stock markets are up a bit today. 

Market (Major) Indexes for Tuesday, March 17, 2020

 

 

Close

Change

Volume

Dow Jones Industrial

$INDU

21,237.38

1,048.86

793,058,904

S&P 500

$SPX

2,529.19

143.06

4,806,025,527

Nasdaq Composite

$@CCO

7,334.782

430.1897

 

S&P TSX Composite

TI0000

12,685.21

324.81

617,051,883

S&P TSX 60

TITX60

767.52

21.73

308,343,520

S&P TSX Venture

VIJX

374.72

8.26

87,601,420

London Gold Fix

$GFL

1,487.70

-75.10

 

$Canadian Dollar

FX$CAD/USD

0.7028

-0.011

 

That Canadian dollar drop is annoying.  I paid the marina monthly charge today and in USD.

I washed the boat this afternoon and finished after dusk. It could use a second wash, but who cares?

I wrote on Facebook again. I hardly ever do. Maybe I should not.  I tend to be to be very direct and very non-PC, but...


(Some people apparently did not recognize the irony.)

As far as I can tell, 10% don't even know they have it, the rest suffer a bit, and 10% are on death's door.  A very small percentage die and are usually people who would die from something else soon anyhow. What is the big fuss?  Don't run away.  Face it.  The avoidance measures are bound to cause more indirect deaths than the disease.

I watched some Netflix and went to bed.  Netflix has been slow and stops to buffer lately even though my Internet is fast

Don't sweat the petty things and don't pet the sweaty things.
George Carlin

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Wednesday March 18th 2020

Today Mainly cloudy with 60 percent chance of flurries. Wind up to 15 km/h. High minus 4. Wind chill minus 21 this morning and minus 8 this afternoon. UV index 3 or moderate.
Tonight Mainly cloudy. 60 percent chance of flurries this evening. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 14. Wind chill minus 9 this evening and minus 17 overnight.

I was up at 7, had breakfast and went to coffee.  The topic was the Wuflu panic.  Most of the expats seem set on staying here and seem quite informed. Some went to the US and came back to get out of the insanity.

I've been cleaning house and re-organizing. My plan is to meet Gillian at LAP at 5:25.  This has been a pivot point so we'll see A. If she arrives, and B. If her intentions to go sailing for two weeks have changed at all.

The markets waterfall continues...

Market (Major) Indexes for Wednesday, March 18, 2020
    Close Change Volume
Dow Jones Industrial $INDU 19,898.92 -1,338.46 871,359,263
S&P 500 $SPX 2,398.10 -131.09 5,178,694,373
Nasdaq Composite $@CCO 6,989.8444 -344.9376  
S&P TSX Composite TI0000 11,721.42 -963.79 588,751,913
S&P TSX 60 TITX60 714.74 -52.78 286,421,241
S&P TSX Venture VIJX 338.81 -35.91 96,676,774
London Gold Fix $GFL 1,536.20 48.50  
$Canadian Dollar FX$CAD/USD 0.6926 -0.0114  

Panic Pandemic – Why Are People Who Should Know Better Buying The Covid19 Hype?

It is clear that this panic is a cover for the financial collapse that began in September when the repo market seized up.  It is 2008 all over again but much bigger and in drag.

The Big Bank Bailout

Registration of Canadians Abroad

Corona Virus in Mexico Covid-19

A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data
(The answer is yes)

Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand

3 charts that helped change coronavirus policy in the UK and US
I hope these charts, based again on models, are not from the same folks who brought us the hugely inaccurate and exaggerating global warming charts that have been proven far, far off over and over, but nevertheless form the basis for many government interventions. 

Hmmm.  Does Davos ring a bell?

They say figures don't lie, but liars can figure.

COVID Chaos: What’s More Dangerous, The Virus Or Our Reaction?
Unintended consequences are very probable, including outright war as populations grow restless and shortages mount.

I spent the day organising and cleaning. This has been an ongoing project for days, but with G arriving today, I have a deadline.

In the end, I put everything I don't know what to do with into a box and put it back into a locker and was as done as I ever am.

I summoned Uber at 4:45 and rode to the airport.  Uber is shut down in the US and Canada but carrying on as ever here.  We ride with the windows open in La Paz anyhow, if that matters.

I arrived at LAP and walked in and over to arrivals.  LAP is a very small airport. The plane was a half-hour early and literally five minutes later G walked out, wearing a mask.  We called Uber and rode back to the marina.

I showed her around and made spaghetti for supper.  The we walked down the Malecon to Centro and back, watched a bit of Republic of Doyle, and she was off to her bunk.  She had just travelled for 30 hours.

I turned in shortly after.

I may not have gone where I intended to go,
but I think I have ended up where I needed to be
Douglas Adams

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Thursday March 19th 2020

Today Clearing. Fog patches dissipating this morning. Wind becoming southeast 20 km/h this afternoon. High minus 3. Wind chill minus 14 this morning and minus 9 this afternoon. UV index 5 or moderate.
Tonight Clear. Becoming partly cloudy this evening. Wind southeast 20 km/h becoming light this evening. Low minus 15. Wind chill minus 12 this evening and minus 21 overnight.

I slept well and woke at six.

Every day is a new day and I examine the world around me  every morning for a few hours to reevaluate my thoughts and my options.  These days things are changing rapidly.

First thing today, I checked email and received this from a reader I respect and who offers good insights.


I have a comment on your really unfortunate message here (and on Facebook) a day or so ago that people should try to get the virus now to avoid getting it later. I'll let "Beau" do the talking on my behalf... stay safe, Allen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEmylMus014
 

I was a bit tongue in cheek with that post, but not everyone has a sense of irony.  I always figure someone has to take the other side of anything that is presented as fact, a so-called devil's advocate.  My son, Jon, understands.  We're both programmers and as such have a totally different sense of humour and way of understanding the world than most.

I tend to be provocative.  Readers should know that and not believe what i say blindly.  Sometimes I am kidding and assume people have independent understanding.  Apparently, some do, some don't.

I have one rule: "Break every rule" and sometimes I even break that one. You got the irony didn't you? Most don't.  Hint: it is recursive.

How about this one?  There are 10 kinds of people. Those who understand binary and those who don't.

I assume that people will reexamine their positions and either shift them or strengthen them.  I'm not an evangelist but others are. To me, ideas are toys to be played with.  It saddens me when I am misunderstood and taken literally but I am used to it.

I watched the video and don't know what to say other than what I am seeing around me is an widening gap between those with a collectivist viewpoint and those with individualist bent.

This split is nothing new.  It is as old as mankind. I recall the things we used to say as kids, "All for one, one for all.  Every man for himself".  Kids get it.  When the SHTF, we first try collective action, but at some point, it is "Sauve qui peut"

I also see everyone, as usual, promoting their personal 'book'.  Beau is definitely talking his. He sees himself in the crosshairs and he may be.

A 'book' in trader terms is what you are invested in at the moment and need to succeed.  It is a natural bias and everyone does it, although most deny it and make out that their position benefits others, but if it does, that is actually a fortunate coincidence.

People are naturally selfish and have to be or humans would not have survived this long. We have to be selfish before we can be altruistic or we could not be altruistic.  Aid workers in starving, deficient countries eat and treat themselves first or they would not be able to work.

Altruistic tendencies tend to be very strong as well, and the two impulses can coexist and even be congruent when things are good, but start to diverge when the SHTF and can eventually be in direct conflict.  Some people realise that the game has changed earlier than others and adapt.  Others just do what they are told to the end.

Appeal to authority backed with selected facts, pseudo facts, and emotion is often played as trump and convinces many, but has to be rejected unless it is the only argument available.

We have to understand that governments and health care workers have their unique 'book' and promote it heavily.  What is best for them may or may not be best for 'all', but is not necessarily best for individuals.  As 'authority' however, their views are heavily promoted and dissent is deprecated or even censored.

Sitting here on a boat in Baja California Sur, I am conflicted.  What is best for me?  What is best for my friends, What is best for my community?  Which community?

I see this as a lottery, and personally, I don't buy lottery tickets.  I bought one once. It did not work and that was it.  The odds in this lottery are not as extremely long as for MaxMillion, but they are still pretty long.  If this were horse racing, survival is almost a sure thing.

I may expand on this but it is a lot to write.  In fact, it is not actually possible as my thoughts are not in words and are multi-dimensional and probabilistic.  As a programmer, I see a complex recursive program with many subroutines, , and parameters that shift, and some of which are unknowns.

China COVID-19 study: blood type O are more resistant, type A are more susceptible to infection
Not good news for me.  I'm A+

At 6:45 I'm going to have breakfast.  G is still asleep and her door is closed.  I'm guessing she will be down for a while yet.

Dow futures are down again.  In spite of appeals to be nice and to buy or hold (at least until they get out) from authorities, it is every man woman, widow and orphan for himself. Sauve qui peut.  The markets are we see what people really think. Take your losses early.

G got up and at ten we started for the dentist, walked to centro and realised we had two hours. We went to a drug store to get azitromicina, the same drug that did me so much good earlier and which G says she used to finally defeat the pneumonia she had in February.  She is convinced she had the same disease as the Wuflu but in the US.  She is a very experienced nurse who has worked all over the world in various capacities, so who am I to argue? 

So, should I rush back to Canada and take the real risk of infection in the airports and planes or cruise the Sea with a nurse?  Problem is that she intends to leave on the 28th and I may not be able to return to Canada for a month.  Every day the prospects look different, so we will see.

With that much time before my appointment, we took a collectivo to the bank, went to Chedraui and provisioned, went to the boat, then back to the dentist.  The tooth took two hours and then we went looking for another pharmacy, bought a slice of pizza and found ourselves at the museum.  So, we went in and spent an hour, then walked down the street and stopped for ice cream.  A collectivo stopped near us so we got on and went for a long ride around town and got off near Centro again.

We began walking home, but my foot had a sore from a rubbing strap and I called Uber to take us the rest of the way.  We had a rest, then we had supper and we caught Uber back to Chedraui, returning to the boat by eight.

All right everyone, line up alphabetically according to your height.
Casey Stengel

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