Winter 2018-2019 possibilities

Excerpts and links of interest to Beekeepers
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BDT123
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Winter 2018-2019 possibilities

Unread post by BDT123 » October 22nd, 2018, 5:17 pm

Hello all, thought I'd start a new thread for the possibility of a weak El Nino this winter. The ENSO blog from NOAA provides some interesting info. And of course, I'm a weather geek.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... er-outlook
Best regards,
Brian

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BDT123
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Re: Winter 2018-2019 possibilities

Unread post by BDT123 » October 22nd, 2018, 5:23 pm

As an added bonus for the Northern Beeks, Enviro Can tries to do a 3 month outlook.
https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/prob_e.html
Brian

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Allen Dick
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Re: Winter 2018-2019 possibilities

Unread post by Allen Dick » October 22nd, 2018, 6:31 pm

As I read it, the odds are about 33% each for above, below, and average temperatures where I live.
Allen Dick, RR#1 Swalwell, Alberta, Canada T0M 1Y0
51° 33'39.64"N 113°18'52.45"W
http://www.honeybeeworld.com/Allen%27s%20Beehives.kmz
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Countryboy
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Re: Winter 2018-2019 possibilities

Unread post by Countryboy » October 23rd, 2018, 7:06 am

That's the same odds for me in Ohio.

And when taken in aggregate, that means this prediction will have 100% accuracy! I'd hate to think how much money was spent on education and training to be able to come up with a prediction this accurate.

The sad part is, the forecaster is probably pretty proud of themselves for their prediction and the work they put into making it.
B. Farmer Honey
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Allen Dick
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Re: Winter 2018-2019 possibilities

Unread post by Allen Dick » October 23rd, 2018, 9:02 am

Yeah. I've been watching the hurricane track predictions and they are approximate at best.

Like all oracles, weather and climate predictions are ambiguous and well hedged. They were right even when they are wrong. Really wrong.

The predictions all start with a known fact like an existing system and then speculate. Sorta like the TV "News" often does.

People have consulted oracles since the beginning of time and also have thought that human activity was a major force in the climate and weather. I doubt it ever was. However, at present, it is clear that human activity does have some influence at present, but it is hard to say how much and what natural buffering forces are at play.

Nature has a way of responding to excesses of anything. For example, with all the panic about oil spills, the damage is short-term and local. Organisms need time to adapt and respond, but nature cleans the oil up without human assistance. In the Gulf, for example, word is that the remediation measures did more damage to the ecosystem than the spill itself.


I would not rely on these weather and climate sources to do any more than predict today's weather and today's climate. They do a great job of recording the real data.

Simple fact is, nobody knows and nobody can know the future. But we can guess. Do we believe our guesses?

"Prediction is difficult, especially about the future." -- Yogi Bera.

More at http://www.honeybeeworld.com/diary/2018 ... ct22nd2018
Allen Dick, RR#1 Swalwell, Alberta, Canada T0M 1Y0
51° 33'39.64"N 113°18'52.45"W
http://www.honeybeeworld.com/Allen%27s%20Beehives.kmz
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