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Winter 2018-2019 possibilities

Posted: October 22nd, 2018, 5:17 pm
by BDT123
Hello all, thought I'd start a new thread for the possibility of a weak El Nino this winter. The ENSO blog from NOAA provides some interesting info. And of course, I'm a weather geek.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... er-outlook
Best regards,
Brian

Re: Winter 2018-2019 possibilities

Posted: October 22nd, 2018, 5:23 pm
by BDT123
As an added bonus for the Northern Beeks, Enviro Can tries to do a 3 month outlook.
https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/prob_e.html
Brian

Re: Winter 2018-2019 possibilities

Posted: October 22nd, 2018, 6:31 pm
by Allen Dick
As I read it, the odds are about 33% each for above, below, and average temperatures where I live.

Re: Winter 2018-2019 possibilities

Posted: October 23rd, 2018, 7:06 am
by Countryboy
That's the same odds for me in Ohio.

And when taken in aggregate, that means this prediction will have 100% accuracy! I'd hate to think how much money was spent on education and training to be able to come up with a prediction this accurate.

The sad part is, the forecaster is probably pretty proud of themselves for their prediction and the work they put into making it.

Re: Winter 2018-2019 possibilities

Posted: October 23rd, 2018, 9:02 am
by Allen Dick
Yeah. I've been watching the hurricane track predictions and they are approximate at best.

Like all oracles, weather and climate predictions are ambiguous and well hedged. They were right even when they are wrong. Really wrong.

The predictions all start with a known fact like an existing system and then speculate. Sorta like the TV "News" often does.

People have consulted oracles since the beginning of time and also have thought that human activity was a major force in the climate and weather. I doubt it ever was. However, at present, it is clear that human activity does have some influence at present, but it is hard to say how much and what natural buffering forces are at play.

Nature has a way of responding to excesses of anything. For example, with all the panic about oil spills, the damage is short-term and local. Organisms need time to adapt and respond, but nature cleans the oil up without human assistance. In the Gulf, for example, word is that the remediation measures did more damage to the ecosystem than the spill itself.


I would not rely on these weather and climate sources to do any more than predict today's weather and today's climate. They do a great job of recording the real data.

Simple fact is, nobody knows and nobody can know the future. But we can guess. Do we believe our guesses?

"Prediction is difficult, especially about the future." -- Yogi Bera.

More at http://www.honeybeeworld.com/diary/2018 ... ct22nd2018

Re: Winter 2018-2019 possibilities

Posted: November 27th, 2018, 4:45 pm
by BDT123
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Will keep this going if anyone is interested.
Looks like a weak El Nino this year, but as always, there are implications for bee keepers in differing locales.
Brian

Re: Winter 2018-2019 possibilities

Posted: December 13th, 2018, 5:01 pm
by BDT123
Well, Winter is still with us here in West-Central Alberta, although somewhat less nasty than the last couple years. I will say that the snow in September was not an auspicious start to the season.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... hip-advice
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... disc.shtml
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Enjoy the reading. Looks like we aren't there yet!
Brian

Re: Winter 2018-2019 possibilities

Posted: December 13th, 2018, 5:12 pm
by Allen Dick
I recall when I first moved out here fifty years ago and had limited heat, that when the winter solstice came, only a week away now, I figured that with the days getting longer, the weather would warm. I was wrong. January and February were still ahead and although the days were growing longer and the sun rising from its Dec 21st 16 degrees off the southern horizon, we were still in for some bitter weather. A recall a week of solid minus forty in early February back in 1990

Re: Winter 2018-2019 possibilities

Posted: December 24th, 2018, 6:22 am
by BadBeeKeeper
11 years ago I moved 200 miles north of where I had been living. I didn't think the weather would be that much different, I was in for a rude awakening. I thought anything less than 20F was frigid and rarely saw anything below the teens. Then I discovered that 10w-40 oil at -25F is so thick that a truck won't start ...and changing the oil at -25 *really* sucks.

Re: Winter 2018-2019 possibilities

Posted: December 24th, 2018, 7:32 am
by Allen Dick
If you move inland, even a little, temperatures tend to be more extreme than at the seashore.

We use 0w40 or 5w40 in the winter around here where we see -40 on occasion. We also have block heaters and plug in our vehicles if it gets much below minus 20. Even an hour or two plugged in makes a huge difference.

Re: Winter 2018-2019 possibilities

Posted: December 25th, 2018, 5:54 am
by BadBeeKeeper
Yeah, depending on the vehicle, now I either run 5-30 year round or change to 5-20 for winter. Got magnetic heaters that stick on the oil pans too, maybe not as good as block heaters but good enough.

Re: Winter 2018-2019 possibilities

Posted: March 8th, 2019, 4:47 pm
by BDT123
Well, A very weak El Niño is being declared by NOAA.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... c-rainfall
I guess it’s real weak, and late.
No idea what it holds for us beeks in the northern tier. February was brutal and March no better so far. Not sure if I have live bees left.
Brian
53N 115 W El 850M

Re: Winter 2018-2019 possibilities

Posted: March 8th, 2019, 5:03 pm
by BDT123
Don’t care what oil you use. If it doesn’t ‘splash’ at first crank, you are hosed. Worked with enough mechanics and millwrights over 40 years to know that, mostly north of 60. Use synthetic ‘everything’ for vehicle fluids if you live in Canada. Maybe Maine and ....?.?
Brian

Re: Winter 2018-2019 possibilities

Posted: April 2nd, 2019, 11:00 am
by BDT123
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... ow’d-we-do
I found this an interesting read. As discussed by others previously, the NOAA forecast for Winter 2018/2019 was wrong.
Brian

Re: Winter 2018-2019 possibilities

Posted: April 2nd, 2019, 12:26 pm
by Allen Dick
Trying to predict order in a chaotic system is a fool's errand. that doesn't stop a lot of people from making a lot of money and a career out of attempting it. What possible use is such a forecast when they are so often wrong and flipping a coin would give as good a result? The cost is a lot less money plus we know that is just at toss of a coin and not your tax money at work.

Re: Winter 2018-2019 possibilities

Posted: April 8th, 2019, 5:39 pm
by BDT123