El Niño 2015 continues to strengthen. Now 'too big to fail'

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Allen Dick
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El Niño 2015 continues to strengthen. Now 'too big to fail'

Unread post by Allen Dick » October 18th, 2015, 10:19 am

El Niño is in full swing and strengthening, according to the latest update from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/a ... ail/58544/
Allen Dick, RR#1 Swalwell, Alberta, Canada T0M 1Y0
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Re: El Niño 2015 continues to strengthen. Now 'too big to fail'

Unread post by Charlie » October 19th, 2015, 4:46 pm

This post cause me to go look up the predictions for this winter because of El Niño.
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/a ... ing/56976/

If I'm reading the map right that's in the middle of the page Calgary being in the Western part of North America could experience a very mild winter. It looks like you don't want to be living anywhere east of "Winterpeg" because it looks like it'll be very cold and if memory serves me right they will get boatloads upon boatloads of snow.

This is fantastic I can leave the brass monkeys out this winter. The bad part is our friends in the East, look like they're going to take another pounding for the second year in a row. :( It would be much nicer if we could all share and mild temperatures. Because for more than 50 years I know what the brass monkeys feel like in the Canadian prairie winter. :lol:

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Re: El Niño 2015 continues to strengthen. Now 'too big to fail'

Unread post by Allen Dick » October 19th, 2015, 4:50 pm

Yeah. I think the predictions are for something like last winter or milder.

That means good bee wintering here and cold and snowy down east.
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Re: El Niño 2015 continues to strengthen. Now 'too big to fail'

Unread post by Charlie » November 17th, 2015, 11:01 pm

There is no doubt about it climate changes here in a big way. All that is left is to argue about the cause.

From http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense ... ecord.html
Global Temperatures Smash September Record by Widest Margin in History
just a few highlites
-So far this year there have been 21 tropical cyclones of category 4 or 5 strength north of the equator—a new all-time record. Twenty of these have been in the Pacific, where El Niño tends to create exceptionally favorable conditions. The Washington Post’s Jason Samenow described it as “the most extreme tropical cyclone season on record in the Northern Hemisphere.”
-Last week, a torrential rainstorm the National Weather Service described as a thousand-year rainfall event created a horrific mudslide that buried California highways, trapping hundreds of cars. Those near the scene described it as a “wall of mud.” No one was seriously hurt.
Earlier this month, much of Australia dealt with a brutal spring heat wave that likely reduced farmers’ yields. Australia is typically one of the countries hit hardest by El Niño.
-In Indonesia, a huge burst of peatland wildfires has blanketed cities across the region with dense smoke for weeks, producing more daily carbon dioxide emissions than the entire United States. Also, new research shows a spike in dengue fever outbreaks in Southeast Asia during particularly strong El Niño years.
-A rare and venomous yellow-bellied sea snake was recently spotted on a beach in California, the furthest north sighting ever recorded, thanks to the warm water. But don’t worry, it’s probably nothing.
While normally El Niño years mean good beekeeping with warm dry winters in the Western half of North America while our friends in the East getting the exact opposite and are just pounded. However one needs to consider that's only for a couple of degrees of change, what happens when we get into the four and 5 degrees of change? Is it more of the same only stronger or do we get unprecedented weather patterns?

Stay tuned the weather will be interesting this year.

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Re: El Niño 2015 continues to strengthen. Now 'too big to fail'

Unread post by BDT123 » February 9th, 2017, 6:22 pm

Looking at the Environment Canada website, it appears that La Niña is breaking down / broken down. Warm outflow from Peru/Ecuador looks like another El Niño may be forming. Too soon to call. Not the normal 3-5 year interval. Yikes

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Re: El Niño 2015 continues to strengthen. Now 'too big to fail'

Unread post by BDT123 » February 9th, 2017, 6:24 pm

Maybe El Niño 2017? Anybody else watching this?

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Re: El Niño 2015 continues to strengthen. Now 'too big to fail'

Unread post by Kens » February 9th, 2017, 7:36 pm

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

A fairly complex ENSO analysis, mostly neutral if I read it right.

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Re: El Niño 2015 continues to strengthen. Now 'too big to fail'

Unread post by BDT123 » February 9th, 2017, 9:58 pm

Looks like epic fail of La Niña to me. Huge out-swell of warm water from Peru/Ecuador coast.
Only colder than normal water is mid-Pacific, not much extent. I'm calling La Niña fading. Just me. :D Only big change I see is warm 'blob' off west coast NA is replaced by colder water. Is that good? Or what?
BT

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Re: El Niño 2015 continues to strengthen. Now 'too big to fail'

Unread post by BDT123 » February 9th, 2017, 10:19 pm


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Re: El Niño 2015 continues to strengthen. Now 'too big to fail'

Unread post by BDT123 » February 9th, 2017, 10:20 pm

Let me know if it flanges up with NOAA

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Re: El Niño 2015 continues to strengthen. Now 'too big to fail'

Unread post by BDT123 » February 9th, 2017, 10:30 pm

Kens, slide 9 looks a lot like formation of El Niño 2 years ago. Just sayin'
BT

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Re: El Niño 2015 continues to strengthen. Now 'too big to fail'

Unread post by BDT123 » February 22nd, 2017, 10:12 pm

Kens, is NOAA still saying neutral? It looks like 15 months ago, warm outflow!?
Hope I'm wrong, and won't be surprised...
Lots of complexity with climate...what's neutral supposed to look like in this day and age?
I can hardly remember...Normal is almost gone from my belief system. Particularly with weather.

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Re: El Niño 2015 continues to strengthen. Now 'too big to fail'

Unread post by BDT123 » March 14th, 2017, 8:42 pm

Anyone looked at data lately? Doesn't look look like like el Nino anymore

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Re: El Niño 2015 continues to strengthen. Now 'too big to fail'

Unread post by BDT123 » April 2nd, 2017, 9:42 pm

Should have said, La Nina! Outflow off Peru/Ecuador is warmer, ranging to mid-Pacific. El Nino or seasonally normal - unknown at this time. What does this mean for beeks at this time of year? Hunker down or punt?
Last year was real creepy here in Alberta, tons of moisture, clover blooming til November, rain, bees flying in November, eating stores,....Had tons of stores in Late November and then one hive starved, WTH?!
Don't want that again, but I'll be ready next time.

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Re: El Niño 2015 continues to strengthen. Now 'too big to fail'

Unread post by BDT123 » April 2nd, 2017, 9:46 pm

My newest plan is to make sure there is way more honey stored up top than I used to think they needed. Like a full deep of honey / syrup/ whatever. My triple decker is kicking butt - they will all be triples next Fall! Just sayin'..

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Re: El Niño 2015 continues to strengthen. Now 'too big to fail'

Unread post by Allen Dick » April 2nd, 2017, 10:46 pm

Can't hurt and you don't need to worry in spring
Allen Dick, RR#1 Swalwell, Alberta, Canada T0M 1Y0
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Re: El Niño 2015 continues to strengthen. Now 'too big to fail'

Unread post by BDT123 » April 10th, 2017, 12:13 am

I guess more food / surplus food is good no matter what. I need to work on ensuring it stays accessible. A third deep of honey is great, unless they keep eating until December 10th. Then it's too cold to check. Maybe Biermann is right, get Broodminders!
My big hive is rockin and obviously brooding up, but I can't look! Damn!
Will inspect when we get to +15C, no sooner. Will unwrap same day.
It feels like Spring, lots of pollen, but still too damned cold.
Will report in 2 weeks, hopefully

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Re: El Niño 2015 continues to strengthen. Now 'too big to fail'

Unread post by BDT123 » May 16th, 2017, 8:46 pm

Looking at Environment Canada weather site, it looks like a weak El Niño is building again. So, El Niño 2017? A one year roll-over? That can't be normal. WTH is normal anymore?
The more significant early season shrubs are on the cusp of bloom, willows will be finished in a week or so. Saskatoons, choke cherries starting in a few days, dandelions really ramping up now. Roses are a couple weeks away. Looking ok so far in the parkland.
Brian

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