I woke at four, feeling great and feeling thankful. I lay there a
while, listening to boat sounds, thinking, then got up and went up to
the cockpit and sat a while in the bright moonlight. Conditions
were calm with only a slight swell.
After a while, I went back to bed and dozed until seven-thirty. By
then the sun was up and the wind was picking up. I sat in the
cockpit a while, then went below for net and breakfast.
* * * *
* *
I hope I am getting over following this covid-1984 trainwreck.
It's crazy. I have to find something else to entertain me.
Everyone has now forgotten the reason for the lockdowns was
not to prevent everyone from getting covid-1984, but to avoid everyone
getting it at once, gaining time to learn, and to isolate (only)
the most vulnerable indefinitely.
There are widespread hopes for a vaccine or 'herd immunity',
but these hopes are just that, hopes. They are uncertain and
we cannot stay locked down forever. Fact is, we don't
have vaccines for many common diseases and corona viruses
are apparently a difficult target.
We may just have to bite the bullet and take our losses.
While an early contagion can expand exponentially, pandemics
tend to run down over time for various reasons. For one thing,
they soon run out of low hanging fruit. The most susceptible people
get it first, then the more resistant are left, making infection
more difficult.
Pathogens also generally tend to become weaker as they spread
out and mutate since the weaker mutations spread farther and faster
without detection and immunize their victims whereas the worst strains
simply kill the host and terminate then and there.
By that reasoning, one would expect to find the
deadliest forms in hospitals and the more benign versions on
the streets. Makes sense.
Assuming about of even a weak strain gives immunity, the principle
behind many vaccines, eventually the disease runs out of potential
victims after a while and cases become less common.
It is just another example of diminishing returns, the same
principle that kills chain letters and Ponzi schemes.
* * * *
* *
Mobile Phone Activity From Wuhan Lab Suggests 'Possible
Shutdown' In October Due To 'Hazardous Event'
Just another confirmation of the rumours
All the early rumours reported here are proving true, of course.
The MSM seems the last to know and are inclined to ignore, exaggerate
and distort anything that does not fit neatly into their predetermined
narrative.
* * *
* * *
My friend Dr. Jerry Bromenskenk said after the news came out that he had trained
bees to find landmines for DARPA, The National Enquirer was
the only news organization to get the story right. That is a sad commentary
on our news media these days.
Jerry and I were talking about going to Indochina to put it
into practice, but that never happened.
* * * *
* *
Check this out:
NBC Apologizes For Chuck Todd's Propaganda Edit.
Shocking yellow journalism and I'm bet he gets off scot-free and
with a pat on the back. Not even a blush.
* * * *
* *
Does nicotine combat COVID-19? French scientists to test
theory as data shows pattern
* * *
* * *
I received my
FACS newsletter today and decided to get involved, recommending
using Zoom and promoting the forum. We'll see how that goes.
* * * *
* *
The cringe-inducing Prime Minister
* * *
* * *
The race for coronavirus vaccines: a graphical guide
* * *
* * *
Well, I fully disassembled the toilet pump and reassembled
it and it still works the same so there must be blockage in the outlet
line. It was n instructive exercise, though.
* * * *
* *
* * *
* * *
Somehow, I was busy all day. The toilet is no
better, but now I think I know what needs to be done next. I'll
remove and clear the discharge line. I should have done that long
ago. I had somehow assumed the job would be hard, but on closer examination
it appears to be quite simple
* * * *
* *
I tried to get logged onto FB with no luck since my
Telcel number seems to be not working, called Bill on Skype and we played
with ham radio. He could barely hear me on 7208.0 MHz on 40 meters.
I could not hear him. We did video on Skype, so I saw his new
sunroom and he got to see Bahia Falsa in a panorama sweep around my
boat.
I watched YouTube videos, made porridge and went to
bed at nine.
Quote
of the Day
History never repeats itself.
Man always does.
Voltaire
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Tuesday May
12th 2020
Today Mainly cloudy. 30 percent chance of showers early
this morning. Wind southeast 20 km/h. High 13. UV index
6 or high.
Tonight Cloudy. Clearing overnight. Wind up to 15 km/h.
Low minus 3. Wind chill minus 5 overnight.
I woke at five. Sunrise was still over an hour away, but the waning
moon was bright. I sat in the cockpit a while, watching the dawn break,
drank cold coffee and went back to bed. Even after eight hours sleep
I was groggy and also a bit stuffy.
I ate some oatmeal right before bed last night and wonder
if oatmeal does not agree with me. Oatmeal is supposed to be super
food, but I have learned that what the 'experts' recommend does
not always suit me. Foods that are supposed to be low-glycemic,
for example, sometimes are the opposite for me and others, like spaghetti,
are very low.
I got up again just before seven and the sun was just rising over
the hills to the east. I made fresh coffee and had a sponge bath
and started the day.
My first job is the toilet discharge hose. I'm assuming it
is obstructed.
* * * *
* *
Colin sent me a picture a while ago of his family flying from YYZ to
YVR. Seems they had to wear costumes (left).
* * * *
* *
I had a Zoom meeting with Mom and Mich, made a stew, then got to
work on the toilet. I pulled off the discharge hose and at the
toilet end it looks fine.
I took a break, had lunch and studied up on using Zoom, then resumed
the job.
* * * *
* *
I
received an email suggestion about the toilet problem that would apply
in a house, but this system is very different.
This system is basically atmospheric. There are a macerator
and pump right at the toilet base. They simply suck the contents
out the bottom, mash them, and expel them up over a vacuum break loop
and out a through-hull. Very simple.
I rebuilt the pump and that did not fix the issue, so I assumed the
discharge was blocked and pulled the discharge off but it seems clear,
so there must be some way air is getting into the pump and keeping it
from sucking. I'll have to take a closer look at the gaskets in
the pump and I'll change the hoses anyhow as they are looking old and
old hoses get stinky.
The pump The discharge hose
The through-hull
Before I take the pump apart again, though, I'll hook up a hose and
fill the bowl with water and flush to see how much power the pump has.
I did a small test with just a few fingers over the port as well
as I could manage and it seems strong. With a hose on, I can give it
a real test.
Oh, I just realised maybe what the little bleeder hole I blocked
months ago is for. Maybe the pump gets air-locked after flushing
the bowl dry?
I had blocked that bleeder because brown water was being pulled
into the intake and re-circulating. Maybe my guess was wrong and
the intake is restricted, not the discharge.
If that is it, I'll unblock it and just restrict it.
It is a puzzle, wrapped in a riddle, and I am having fun, slowly.
* * * *
* *
East tropical Pacific ocean starts to cool,
initiating a
cold ENSO phase!
The
hurricane season is starting and La Nina is expected but so far, good
news.
I had thought to go to town today, but found I am happy
here.
I'm running low on fresh food, but have lots of the
staples.
* * * *
* *
A small navy boat came to the bay with a bullhorn repeating
some virus message in Mexican and left. They did not stop.
I'm guessing that they are kids out on an official
mission in a nice boat on a beautiful day.
It is a beautiful job, cruising around all day,
except for the noisy bullhorn driving them crazy no doubt.
Beats polishing brass.
I doubt they want to ruin the afternoon by trying
to talk to some stubborn uncomprehending gringos who are bothering
no one, anymore than any of us want to talk to them.
* * * *
* *
The Way of the Tao Is Reversal
* * * *
* *
How The World's Most Powerful And Influential People See
The World After The Pandemic
Most of the comments are no better than
we would get from any random man on the street, but several
are particularly insightful and sobering. In particular...
James Galbraith: Professor of government
at the University of Texas:
There will be a vast tangle of unpaid debts
that cannot be cleared, and—what is different from 2008
and 2009—the model of foreclosures, evictions, and repossessions
to deal with them is going to be absolutely unacceptable.
People sheltering at home without income are in no way responsible
for their circumstances and will refuse to accept the terms
of those contracts. So the contracts will have to be suspended,
and the debts cleared away, or there will be a confrontation
on a vast scale. This is similar to the farm foreclosure
confrontations of the 1890s and 1930s in this country, but
on a much larger scale, and in many cases urban and suburban.
The right model is that of the treatment of inter-allied
war debts after World War II: They were canceled, because
dealing with the common enemy was a common effort. So the
whole financial system will have to be reset. This is not
an ideological point but a practical necessity for reestablishing
a functioning economic system.
* * * *
* *
Out Of Touch | Kevin James Short Film
This about sums things up some places
Click to watch
Quote
of the Day
I am a firm believer in the people.
If given the truth, they can be depended upon to meet any national crisis.
The great point is to bring them the real facts.
Abraham Lincoln
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Wednesday
May 13th 2020
I awoke at dawn and got up. I'm out of eggs, but ate some of my stew.
I notice that this spaghetti, rice and bean diet of convenience seems
to be having a good effect on my blood sugar.
Having been out of beer for a week probably doesn't hurt either.
Jose writes...
Hey Allen,
Still watching this crazy thing and the societal reaction with increasing
levels of disbelief. It is as if the majority of people have been
driven to focus on the extremes. Everyone is now aware that there
are ventilators, ICUs, very sick people and that people die in hospitals.
Also aware that there are viruses out there that can kill people.
And the drama appears to be playing 24/7 the way the majority are
in this hyper anxious mode. I have decided not to bring up my views
on the virus to most people because it produces this knee jerk overreaction.
Lost in the mania are nuanced understandings of the dynamics of
disease and the complexities of immunology. There seems to be the
notion that one viral particle that gets into one's nose will likely
lead to infection. Hence the obsession with the masks. As if a healthy
immune system weren't the best protection. Wasn't there a good interview
of some specialists in England about what is known about viral dosage,
the level of reaction by immediate players of the immune system,
and how they start working right away on any viral replication in
cells? I have heard that the infections of medical people in ICUs
are so high because of the high viral loads they are exposed to
when dealing with very sick patients, despite the PPEs.
At the other extreme of risk, have you seen any info on the infectivity
of asymptomatic people? I would think if they are asymptomatic,
then their bodies are dealing with the viral challenge pretty effectively
and therefore not shedding high dosages of viruses. And the PCR
test can be so sensitive that it actually theoretically can replicate
a few strands of the viral RNA to get a "positive". Wonder whether
they ever report for the tests any of those nuances. If I remember
correctly, there is a term called Ct value, which determines how
many cycles of viral replication (by heating and cooling the soup
of bases and primers with the test sample) it took to get to the
inflection point of the curve. It seems logical, and would be good
to have documentation on this situation with asymptomatics to bolster
the notion that this needs to be allowed to play out in some logical
fashion.
Bees are finally bouncing back a bit from a long winter- finding
good amounts of tree pollen and in irrigated areas some good dandelion.
Take care,
Jose
I agree. It seems that all subtlety is lost and it seems the
majority of people are black-and-white thinkers and believe whatever
they hear, the worse, the better. People love bogeymen and horror shows
and this sleuth killer hiding in plain sight everywhere all the time
is perfect.
We have seen honey bee hoaxes that run on forever because the stories
fit what people want to believe and because everyone makes money or
reputation on paying lip service to the fable or has disincentives to
expose it.
There are many examples.
The Emperor's
New Clothes comes to mind, so this revelation is nothing new.
Our legislators and media face a
serious
Moral Hazard.
Empty
Virtue-signaling actions and words gain them reputation
with the masses and the costs to them, right or wrong, are minimal
compared to the burdens they are placing on the people who trust
them.
They still get paid and walk and drive around
freely while the masses are restricted. They risk little
or nothing when compared to the costs they are placing on society
by their costly actions--and they even tend to gain.
It is win/win for them. Heads they win, tails
we lose.
"The dose makes the poison". I have known that all along.
Some minor exposure to this virus should be a good thing as long as
it does not overpower one's defensives.
I suspect that the reason health workers go down is the massive
doses they experience, especially intubating desperate cases, as
well as being exposed to all the various mutations that are going
by.
Health workers must occasionally encounter the most lethal mutations while
attempting to prolong the life of a hopeless victim--mutations
so lethal that will terminate on killing the host.
Trigger alert. Skip the next five paragraphs if you are stupid
or insist on denying reality.
Our good intentions in trying to save the hopeless may,
in addition to tying up and wasting scarce resources, be costing
us our front line workers and also frightening the rest of us.
Sometimes "Let the devil take the hindmost" is best policy
for the herd.
One of the reasons our 'free' public health is failing
is the fact that 80%(+) of the resources are spent on the 20%(-)
that are basically hopeless. Apparently in the desire to keep
everyone alive forever, even those who wish to die are kept
alive and against their wishes.
A family member who shot himself in the gut with a shotgun
but survived and told the hospital not to save him was
rushed in and kept
alive for a week or so at great expense. Meantime others
were on long waiting lists for those resources.
Old folks with DNRs
and have even applied for medically assisted death are resuscitated
and kept on machines if they have an 'event'.
Look. If I am going down and saving me compromises
you, let me go. I may curse and swear or look pathetic, but
at that point, you have to take care of number one and in
case you don't know, that is you.
* * *
* * *
As for the others who are hospitalized, I deduce that those who
somehow picked up more than casual small amounts of the virus,
acquired several mutations at
once, have weak immune systems, or have inherited a freak genetic susceptibility,
likely account for most cases.
Outliers, or the tail of the distribution.
* * * *
* *
Oddly, the authorities have banned many activities that build immunity
and are likely to expose people to subclinical amounts, like hikes and
runs and generally being outdoors in the sun and fresh air. Instead
they have mandated staying indoors where often the air is less than
ideal away from the healthy effects on mind and body of being outdoors.
* * * *
* *
As for infectivity of asymptomatic folks, I have not see anything
quantitative. There is talk of people 'shedding' virus several days
before showing symptoms.
Does a high viral load or infectious dose make covid-19
worse?
This article is very good and answers
many of our questions but not definitively.
"...It is early days, but if the
initial amount of virus a person is infected by doesn’t
correlate with the severity of disease symptoms, this
would mark covid-19 out as different from influenza,
MERS and SARS."
Also there is this...
"Scientists in Singapore
suggest that risk is especially high in the 24-48 hours before
an infected person is even aware they might have the disease."
There seems to be a lot of assuming, guessing, extrapolation, and
application of
the
precautionary principle by timid 'leaders'.
* * * *
* *
As for PCR, I have wondered the same. Too many amplification
cycles can yield results that are questionable and hide the tiny original
concentration in the sample.
* * * *
* *
Size matters. But people seem to think that one single lucky
viron can kill a person? Really?
IMO, the reason health care workers are killed may be
in how many mutations of the virus infect them at one time.
Health workers are likely to be infected by several different
versions at once as well as being more likely to be exposed
to freak lethal ephemeral mutations.
Have not had time to read through all the results, but
there
may be more answers here.
Again, from media and politicians, we get only generalities and "Trust
Us We're (they're) the Experts", and black and white choices.
If you want insight and truth you have to go off the main road and
bushwhack a bit.
* * * *
*
No bees here lately, but some really interesting wasps come visiting.
* * * *
*
Excess deaths? Not in Canada during pandemic's early days,
StatCan says
"The agency found that between Jan. 1
and March 31, the eight provinces and one territory included
in the data actually saw 1,145 fewer deaths than expected."
Really??? We are in prison for what?
* * *
* *
I decided I am going back to town today, as much for
something to do as anything, but if I'm going to put the toilet back
together, I'll need new hose.
I called and nobody has hose in stock, but I'm going
anyhow.
My first guess about the toilet prove correct.
The pipe was blocked, but the blockage was around a corner, out of sight.
Yesterday I had banged the hose around but nothing came
out, so I laid it on the foredeck in the sun, hoping it would straighten
in the heat so I could look through to check for blockage.
This morning I picked up he hose, flexed it a little,
then suddenly a lot of scale fell out the end. It had been blocked
and some of the debris was loose enough, I'm guessing, that sometimes
a chunk slid back and allowed the toilet to be normal, then sometimes
the chunk moved up to the elbow restriction, and turned enough to block
the stream.
Anyhow, I'll take a hammer to the hose to break any
remaining scale loose, then put things back together and pray.
I'll try to clean the hose, too because the outside looks awful.
* * * *
* *
Surviving the CLICHE-19 pandemic
* * * *
* *
Well, that was it. The toilet works now!
* * * *
* *
The Worldwide Lockdown May Be The Greatest Policy Mistake
In History
Let them eat cake?
* * *
* * *
I puttered around until the day cooled a bit at six,
then rode Uber to Chedraui.
Things have changed there. They insisted on checking
my backpack at the entry and were checking cash register slips at the
exit the way Costco does.
I was not really into shopping and found I was tired
and a bit depressed, so I just bought the obvious items and figured
to return. As it was, I had a big enough load to carry to the boat.
Back at the boat, I put away groceries and connected
to the Vancouver Bluewater Zoom meeting. Rick Reynolds was the
guest speaker. Rick is a Calgary member and we were in the Calgary
watchkeepers group together a few years back.
Rick's presentation is a slide show of the building
of his 46-foot sailboat over six years and almost ten thousand hours.
I hate to think how much money he spent.
Why he did that when you can buy a perfectly good boat
for half the cost and a small investment of time is a mystery to me,
but he was retired and needed a project. His wife was totally
on board all the way, at least in the presentation. (If truly so, I
wonder if she has a sister).
His boat is a beauty, but I am a fan of plastic mass-production
boats. Cheaper, well built, and repairable.
I'd already heard his presentation some time back, but
figured being in the meeting would be interesting and I am feeling a
bit isolated lately. It went well, but it was looonnnggg and I
left the meeting at ten and went to bed.
Quote
of the Day
I am a firm believer in the people.
If given the truth, they can be depended upon to meet any national crisis.
The great point is to bring them the real facts.
Abraham Lincoln
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Thursday
May 14th 2020
Today Sunny. Wind south 20 km/h becoming west 20 then north
30 gusting to 50 near noon. High 18. UV index 7 or high.
Tonight Clear. Becoming partly cloudy this evening. Wind northeast
20 km/h gusting to 40 becoming light near midnight. Low plus
3.
I woke up at three and was feeling a bit stuffy. The solution to
that is to get up and move around a while and sit up until I am awake
and tired enough to go back to sleep. I had a light breakfast
and coffee, did a few things and went back to bed at four.
Talk Radio 98.5 WRTA
Dr. Gabe Mirkin - May 2020 - WRTA's The 11th Hour with Doug
Herendeen
Gabe Mirkin is my most reliable go-to source for the latest
and most accurate medical news.
His discussion of COVID-1984 and vaccines is the best I've
heard.
I slept until seven-thirty then got up, checked the news and listened
to the net. In the swap section, I mentioned I need a dinghy.
Inflatable Bob replied that he has several and offered to pick me up.
I waited a half-hour and he finally showed. We drove to his
shop and I picked out a dinghy and made a deal for one with seats and
oars and wheels and a fresh coat of paint.
* * * *
* *
When no one is looking, we don't bother with the virtue-signaling
muzzles and I said to him that the 'quadate en casa' measures being
prescribed are ridiculous and damaging.
"If the idea is to save me and my cohort, they should call
this off now. There is no need to stop the world on my account",
said I.
He agreed, and said, "How old are you?"
I said, "Seventy-five." I was rounding forward to October.
He said, "I'm seventy-seven".
We are not looking to die, but most of us old folks would
not want the see the future sacrificed just for a random few of
us who might croak. We're past our best-before date anyhow.
We'll take our chances.
I don't understand a society that cannot let anyone die.
Will it be one worth living in? That is looking increasingly
unlikely and would be very strange and uncomfortable for us
old-timers anyhow.
* * *
* * *
As for health care workers, they are in a squeeze. Read this
horror story...
Records reveal chaos in the days before staff abandoned
the Herron
It is hard to really fault anyone in this sad tale, but I
am sure we will find a scapegoat or two, rather than simply grieve
and learn. We always do.
* * * *
* *
Next, Bob drove me back to MLP where we looked at my dinghy and arranged
a trade-in. I had beer bottles to return, so I caught a ride with him
back to Bandidos. Generally, I prefer a pilsner, but they were out of
Corona, but sold me Modelo Negra at a ridiculous price and sent it home
with me.
* * * *
* *
I've come to the conclusion there is no point in doing anything today
and I had no plans so I drank a few, had a nap and am chilling in the
90 degree mid-day heat.
Here are some interesting videos from
an important perspective.
Andrew Breitbart — Media War
Andrew Breitbart has been smeared
and is very worth a listen
* * *
* * *
The Politics of Hollywood
with Andrew Breitbart
* * *
* * *
The End of the World as We Know It
* * *
* * *
The Case For Trump
Worth watching.
* * *
* * *
After my toilet repair success and finding what should
turn out to be an excellent dinghy deal I was inspired and decided to
to keep working on my list.
I figured I'd start with a small job leading up to the
shower pump issue and put off the freshwater problem for another day.
The freshwater leak is not proving to be simple and easy to hunt down
or fix.
* * * *
* *
I have been reluctant to shower on board lately
because the pump emptying the shower pan has been temperamental.
After a shower, the water has to be evacuated
so that the bathroom floor is dry and the bathroom and the shower
space are one and the same.
* * * *
* *
The
anchor well washdown pump in the forward cabin looked like an easy target.
It has never been used by me or by the previous owner and is really
of very little use that I can think of. I had tried it out recently
and found the pump ran but was not moving water so it needed to be repaired
to be of any use, either there or anywhere.
One reason I tackled this pump first, besides the apparent
simplicity of the job on a hot afternoon, was that my shower drain pump
has been failing and maybe this pump could work as a replacement shower
sump pump, seeing as I have very little or zero use for it as a washdown
pump.
The washdown pump location is very accessible so taking
the pump off took only minutes. I disassembled it and it seemed the
issue was simply dried salt in the rubber valves, keeping them from
operating normally. I washed it out and reassembled it.
Now I have a working washdown pump.
Now I was on a roll, so I started on the shower job.
The shower pump is far up in the back of the basin cabinet and reaching
it requires me to be a contortionist. Reaching it to turn screws
means fitting myself into the cramped space between the toilet and the
basin cabinet, then reaching up through a small opening over a fairy
sharp sill (below left), but I did it.
Getting the pump out was not easy, but I got it out.
Putting it in again will not be easy.
Next, I took it apart and found a motor bearing is almost
seized, likely from exposure to salt water when the boat was flooded.
First, I tried taking the motor apart but that was not
going well, so I tightened the through bolts again and tried freeing
the bearing by applying penetrating oil and running the motor continuously
to loosen it up.
In service this pump never runs more than a few
minutes but I figured running it steadily with no load should work
in lubrication, wear off any tightness, and free the bearing.
I had partial success, but by then it was bedtime.
I'll finish tomorrow.
I was in bed by ten. After a while, I surfaced and realised
that I had an elbow pain, probably from being scrunched into a tiny
space and reaching at odd angles. I took an ibuprofen and went back
to sleep.
Quote
of the Day
If you would be a real seeker after
truth,
it is necessary that at least once in your life you doubt,
as far as possible, all things.
Rene Descartes
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Friday May
15th 2020
Today A mix of sun and cloud. Wind becoming southeast 20
km/h this morning. High 19. UV index 7 or high.
Tonight Partly cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers this
evening. Clearing overnight. Wind southeast 20 km/h becoming
light this evening. Low plus 3.
I woke up from a dream at five.
I had been haying my ditches and baling the hay in to old-style
small rectangular bales, the kind that hobby farmers like because
they can be handled without machinery
Also, I had advertised to buy a small cutter and baler and
therefore was talking to an equipment dealer from Bashaw. He had
a big mustache. I was thinking that Bashaw is along ways off and
if I bought something, how would I get it home?
Somehow I trimmed his mustache with a long handled ice scraper.
That surprised both of us and at that point I decided, enough of
this nonsense. I don't have any animals to feed anyhow, and woke
up.
Ibuprofen can cause strange dreams.
Blood sugar is 6.2, my long-term normal.
* * * *
*
I'm still riding high on my dinghy purchase, the toilet-fixing success,
the repair of the washdown pump---and getting the shower pump out of
the cabinet, so I hope to make more progress today.
* * * *
* *
Andres came by and is looking for work. He is getting desperate,
so I gave him a job polishing stainless. I really don't need it done,
and he chiseled me last time, but I was wondering how he and his family
are doing and thinking of dreaming up for some work for him. It
is not necessary to like and trust people to relate to them.
* * * *
*
The race for coronavirus vaccines: a graphical guide
Eight ways in which scientists hope to provide immunity
to SARS-CoV-2
Exciting stuff. Who knew our bodies defenses are
so sophisticated and smart?
We take them for granted.
* * *
* * *
Ayaan Hirsi Ali on the West, Dawa, and Islam
impressive.
Is Islam a Religion of Peace?
* * * *
*
We hear about the Alt-right and
Antifa.
What abut the rest of us in the
Alt-middle?
* * * *
*
_small.jpg)
I
hooked up the shower pump to check it out and it works!
Now I just have to mount it and hook it up properly.
I just saved $500 US.
* * * *
*
I remounted the shower pump and had a shower.
Mounting the pump was a nasty job, but I managed and
it works better than ever. Bonus!
After that hot, uncomfortable work, the shower was most
welcome.
* * *
* *
Frankly, I never thought I would
listen to this guy and think he makes sense. I was young
and stupid and taken in by the MSM groupthink and believed
the smears.
Pat Buchanan, on Suicide of a Superpower
Patrick Buchanan is a fascinating
guy. He was a presidential candidate back in the seventies
and was accused of suggesting nuking China before China
could threaten the USA.
I think his comment was more subtle
than that but you know how the media treats deep thoughts.
He is definitely worth a listen.
Hi Allen,
Since you are into tinkering and analyzing.... see whether you can
make any sense out of these numbers and how I pieced them together.
The two categories of situations are intriguing, and almost opposite
to the intended effects. Is there something spurious in this way
of looking at things?
Sending it out to some who have been intrigued by this phenomenon...
Jose
Went to the Worldometer coronavirus site and taking a bit of liberties
interpreting their graphs through time for positive cases and deaths
ascribed to covid, came up with this summary. Very odd, almost as
if there are two categories of situations. The places with the most
deaths per capita show a peak and then lower numbers, while, in
general, the places with lower per capita numbers have stayed steady
in cases and deaths. It almost suggests that there was a vulnerable
population for the virus to infect with symptoms (and therefore
got tested) as well as a highly vulnerable population to die in
some higher risk regions. While in other regions the infection played
out lower and more level. The irony in all of this is that wherever
numbers got appreciably lower after a while, suggesting a positive
effect of whatever actions were taken, they still ended up with
generally higher per capita ratios, opposite to the intended effect.
Numbers in parentheses are rough daily cases or deaths at peak and
now, followed by cumulative number per capita (million). Of course
all of this assumes that the numbers reported are more or less representative
of reality!
Daily Cases peaked and then dropped (peak, now) cumulative cases
per million population:
Italy (5.5k, 1.0k) 3.7k
Spain (7.5k, 1.5k) 5.9k
France (5.0k, 1.0k) 2.7k
Germany (5.0k, 1.0k) 2.1k
Belgium (1.5k, 200) 4.7k
Switzerland (1.0k, 50) 3.5k
States within the U.S.
NY (8.0k, 2.0k) 18.3k
NJ (3.5k, 1.0k) 16.3k
LA (1.2k, 200) 7.3k
MA (2.0k, 1.0k) 11.9k
Daily Cases more or less steady (peak, now) cumulative cases per
million:
Sweden (500, 500) 2.9k
UK (4.0k, 4.0k) 3.5k
Canada (1.9k, 1.2k) 2.0k
United States overall (28k, 25k) 4.4k
States within the U.S.
CA (1.5k, 1.5k) 1.9k
TX (1.0k, 1.0k) 1.5k
FL (1.0k, 500) 2.0k
WA (300, 200) 2.4k
PA (1.0k, 900) 5.0k
Daily deaths peaked and then dropped (peak, now) cumulative deaths
per million:
Italy (800, 200) 530
Spain (900, 200) 590
France (750, 100) 420
Germany (200, 80) 361
Belgium (300, 50) 773
Switzerland (60, 10) 217
UK (750, 400) 501
States within the U.S.
NY (900, 200) 1,400
NJ (250, 200) 1,100
LA (40, 30) 527
Daily deaths more or less steady (peak, now) cumulative deaths per
million:
Sweden (75, 75)
United States (1.8k, 1.5k) 265
States within the U.S.
MA (120, 120) 795
CA (60, 60) 77
TX (30, 30) 43
FL (30, 30) 87
WA (20, 10) 130
PA (90, 90) 345
Thanks. I appreciate being asked.
That is interesting. However, right off, I'm having
trouble finding signal in the noise. I see some flashes, but nothing
enduring.
Maybe we need to draw whiskers, but I can't see it and
if I try to imagine all possible correlations, I
stack overflow and BSOD. My eyes roll back.
There might be a pattern, but if so, I see nothing
much except chance dictates that there will always be clusters and some
sizeable ones, too. It is not impossible to roll one hundred twelves
in a row. Just unlikely.
To me the only pattern is no pattern, excepting
only governmental overreach and obfuscation. That pattern emerges
over and over.
There are always susceptible groups defined by genetics,
environment, sometimes, simply irreproducible once-only chance. Our
samples are too small and from non-heterogeneous populations (and sub-populations).
Moreover it is no secret that the reports are based
on unreliable and subjective data, influenced by politics and
other unknown factors. GIGO.
Additionally, I am highly suspicious of statistical
analysis that purports to find pattern/meaning in noise. Sometimes
several different statistical approaches must be consulted before an
'useful' conclusion emerges, but, too often it is ephemera and the next
replication attempt yields the opposite or nothing.
Can we even agree on what is a 'case'? Even what
exactly counts as a COVID-19(84) death is is highly questionable.
Suddenly we are confronted with daily discussion
of death in the media and dying is totally new concept for the
sheeple. I hate that term but it fits.
Sheep Logic.
Herd immunity? S/B flock immunity.
I cannot find enough confirming data, even anecdotal,
to overcome my strong doubts.
Anyhow, I'd maybe see more clearly if it could be charted.
I'll have to spend more time with it
* * * *
*
My friend whose wife owns the only crematorium for this
whole state (BCS) says they are not seeing any CV business and the people
who pick up bodies say that the special wards in hospitals for CV are
empty.
* * * *
*
One issue remains: the fresh water system leak.
What then?
I had a Zoom visit with my son, Jon, in the evening
and think I will plan some future family get-togethers.
* * * *
*
I see
Bill Norrie made it to New Zealand single-handing his little sailboat.
Last I saw him was at a Bluewater meeting in Calgary. His wife became
commodore of the Calgary chapter and shortly after I decided to give
up the position of rendezvous organizer I had held for years when she
started micromanaging everything and calling unnecessary meetings, making
what was up until then a simple job into a time-waster. Wonder
why he went sailing by himself?
Link
Link
Quote of the Day
There are no facts, only interpretations.
Friedrich Nietzsche
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Saturday
May 16th 2020
Today Sunny. Becoming a mix of sun and cloud near noon. Wind
southwest 20 km/h gusting to 40. High 23. UV index 7 or high.
Tonight Partly cloudy. Wind southwest 20 km/h gusting to 40
becoming light this evening. Low 8.
I'm still at the dock in La Paz and happy enough to be here.
I woke up at five again, got up had breakfast and wiped down the
head (nautical term for bathroom).
As I cleaned, I was listening to an excellent ABC Rear View episode
about pandemics, starting with Athens and then concentrating on the
New World. I looked for a download link, but it was not yet posted.
I realise we have forgotten a lot. Pandemics used to wipe
out large segments of populations or even entire populations, so
I can understand why scholars are apprehensive. Most of us
really don't understand the risks. We're used to our safe
world and have little memory of the regular epidemics of even a
half-century ago.
There is no way to be entirely confident that this virus will
not turn into a bigger killer than it now appears to be after traveling
through the world population, mutating as it goes.
Strangely in this modern world where it is assumed we know
everything and if we don't will in a few hours, days, or weeks,
there seems to be total confusion and uncertainty. That is not to
say that some are not very, very certain, but IMO that is certainty
is largely due to ignorance.
Pandemics are routine in the animal and insect world and go
largely unnoticed by all except those who study or depend on those
populations. Disease and predators keep populations in balance
with nature.
'CCD' is an example in bees and such disappearances have been
observed regularly over centuries.
Local human epidemics are still commonplace in parts of the
world but go largely unnoticed here in our North American world.
We don't like epidemics and have figured out ways to stop
them but that has resulted in a burgeoning world population as the
natural balance has been altered. Our human natural birth
rate and social practices evolved to compensate for high death rates
and now we are overpopulating. It is relatively easy to convince
people to take measures to stem epidemics, but it take a lot more
convincing to reduce the birth rates.
Although nature might prefer to have epidemics do her work,
we prefer to live, not die, and our hope, if we cannot find a preventative
or a cure, rests on the tendency for lethal strains to become less
dominant by being obvious and terminal and for weaker but more transmissible
strains to race ahead and immunize our populations.
* * * *
*
I'll have to take a longer look at the data that Jose sent and posted
yesterday. My initial look over did not reveal anything obvious
to me, but maybe there is something in there. I know I am biased
and probably wrong, but if nothing jumps out at me when I'm looking
at data, I strongly expect that any effect in there is fairly subtle.
Jose thought that maybe he saw something, so I owe it another look.
If anyone sees something there that I don't, please write or post
in the forum.
* * * *
*
Was WHO wrong in being hesitant and delaying in naming this event
a pandemic?
Technically,
maybe not. Were they negligent in not strongly warning the world
of a potential pandemic? Yes!
Were our leaders naive and/or negligent in acting to prevent spread?
Definitely.
Our Canadian government allowed itself to be guided by a Chinese
dual citizen who slavishly followed WHO, even when the rest of us were
already avoiding potential infection and wondering, what are they smoking?
It is an open secret that WHO is headed by a person of doubtful competence
and compromised loyalties with a history of concealing outbreaks of
disease in his home country. WHO failed to advise travel bans
when that would have prevented the worldwide spread. The omission actually
seems deliberate.
In the USA, Trump did suspend flights from China and probably would
have done much more but faced great opposition, even being denounced
as racist, and was still being hampered by the ongoing attempted coup
that has now been revealed to have been orchestrated by the previous
administration and should lead to criminal charges. We'll see. Trump
has cut WHO's funding for now, pending investigation and we shall see
where the wheel stops.
* * * *
*
Andres is coming at nine to do some polishing. I'm not looking forward
to it, but he needs the work. Funny thing is I do not really need
the stainless polished and I don't even particularly like the guy but
he keeps asking and I'm a soft touch.
* * * *
*
Reading John Mauldin's letter today, I was impressed by his comment
after listening to Ben Hunt at the virtual SIC.
John says:
"I was struck as I listened to him about how criticism of
the politicization of COVID-19 coincides with my own views on economists
and politicians. I have said often that some economists are like
witch doctors or shamans of the past. They would sacrifice sheep,
look at the entrails, and predict the future. Politicians use economists
to make models showing the correctness of whatever they want to
do anyway. Too many economists are basically pets for politicians."
Amen. I would include some 'scientists' in this as well.
* * * *
*
As for me, on the topic of isolating and masks, etc. I'm stuck
in the middle.
I avoided hot spots like Vancouver where Chinese concentrate
and travel back and forth to China often, long before anyone thought
that might be wise and avoided traveling to see my 101 y.o. Mom.
I live alone on a boat and socialize very little. I do walk
around a bit and go shopping but I take Uber now rather than the
colectivos and I wear a mask when in public.
I wash my hands more often, especially when returning from
off the boat, but not compulsively.
Am I worried about getting the virus? I always assumed
it is inevitable but like many things, delaying the inevitable seems
wise.
Will I get really ill? Will I die? I don't know
and I am in no hurry to find out.
Do I think our governments are handing this well?
No. I'd give them a D- on most matters, but probably not an
F.
I like what Sweden did, relying on the people to make good choices
and providing guidance with relatively little regulation or enforcement.
Treat people like adults and they will act like adults. Treat the like
children and they will act like children. People have enough sense
to watch out for their own safety if allowed to.
* * * *
* *
We must always remember that our best interests and those of the
politicians are not the same. Sometimes they overlap, but we must
remember that the people in power were elected and therefore they were
lucky or they did things to get elected. That invites corruption
because it takes money to be elected these days. Lots of money,
and those who provide the money expect a return on that investment.
I think that is one reason Trump has so many powerful enemies. Love
him or hate him he is not for sale.
Trudeau? You have to be kidding?
The Greeks did not elect, they used a lottery to get representative
government. Like juries, but without the selection by lawyers. Raw reality.
Populism in action.
* * * *
*
Andres showed up and is washing the boat. I thought he was
going to polish the stainless. What do I know? We don't
understand each other very well. Anyhow, I'll have a clean boat and
he can feed his family.
Not only that my boat is right where everyone on the shore and passing
on the dock can see it, so maybe Andres will pick up some more business
when people see him working here.
* * * *
*
I am optimistic. Things had gone about as far as they
can go before this hit. Unnoticed by most,
the repo market froze up in September.
That was a canary in our coalmine, portending end times
for the current long-running Ponzi racket. Trump had that figured and
was turning the screws on China and other parasitical regimes and, of
course, that made him a lot of powerful enemies.
Covid-19(84) has been a convenient distraction from
the ongoing financial systemic collapse and is providing cover for the
usual suspects to start a new con. Will we ever get our freedom
back? Not if they can help it, and not unless we wake up.
So far the populace is buying the narrative and the
captive media are keeping us well-fed with distractions, but at some
point we will run out of supplies and realise that unless we get to
actual work, we won't have anything.
Printed money is a shot of adrenaline for a dying economy
and may keep it alive a little longer, but the metaphor here is apt.
Adrenaline
Shot Can Save Lives But With Big Risks
"An adrenaline shot can restart your heart if it
suddenly stops beating, but a new trial shows that chances are you
might not return to much of a life if you survive."
* * * *
*
JM:> Many folks use nine frames instead
of ten in honey supers precisely so the bees draw them out
farther. If you use an automatic uncapper there is less
chance of cells not getting uncapped before extraction.
Less of an issue with those of us who uncap by hand.
Me: John is right and some even use eight per box for
supers (not brood) because the frames are fatter and easier
to extract, there is twenty percent less handling, and lower
capital cost. Plus the bees clear out better.
In brood chambers, I have run thousands of boxes with
ten and the same with nine and can see no real difference
in performance.
Generally if your frames in the brood boxes get too fat,
you were too slow supering and the bees needed to make more
storage space. They would have preferred to go up but were
forced to build where they could. Same with burr and brace
comb.
Some burr and brace and ladder is normal, but if your
hive is all gummed up and hard to work, you were inattentive
and did not provide enough room soon enough. The time to
super is before the flow not after.
Keeping (plastic) foundation in the number one and ten
positions in brood boxes in two-brood box hives (doubles)
is a good practice because when they are being drawn you
know you need more supers.
UK Chief Medic Confirms
(Again) That COVID-19 Is Harmless To Vast Majority
[T]he great majority of people will not die from
this and I’ll just repeat something I said right at the beginning
because I think it’s worth reinforcing:
Most people, a significant proportion of people, will not get this
virus at all, at any point of the epidemic which is going to go
on for a long period of time.
Of those who do, some of them will get the virus without even knowing
it, they will have the virus with no symptoms at all, asymptomatic
carriage, and we know that happens.
Of those who get symptoms, the great majority, probably 80%, will
have a mild or moderate disease. Might be bad enough for them to
have to go to bed for a few days, not bad enough for them to have
to go to the doctor.
An unfortunate minority will have to go as far as hospital, but
the majority of those will just need oxygen and will then leave
hospital.
And then a minority of those will end up having to go to severe
end critical care and some of those sadly will die.
But that’s a minority, it’s 1% or possibly even less than 1% overall.
And even in the highest risk group this is significantly less than
20%, ie. the great majority of people, even the very highest groups,
if they catch this virus, will not die.
And I really wanted to make that point really clearly…
Turns out Andres is both washing the boat
and polishing the stainless. That is a pleasant surprise.
I wasn't totally sure what we had agreed to and
we had a misunderstanding last time, but it all worked out. His
English is as sketchy as my Spanish.
I know he appreciates the job and being seen
in this location may have picked up more work for him. I suppose
if he makes my boat a showpiece right in a highly visible, high
foot traffic area that won't hurt his rep.
Jose writes again:
Hi Allen,
Lost some sleep last night pondering the data set I put together.
I had the thought some of it could come from differences in
the amount of testing- more tests per capita picking up more
infections (and possibly deaths). But I checked the numbers
this morning and most of the countries on the list have tested
at "similar" levels. Crazy when things that are in the same
order of magnitude are considered similar.. Most countries have
30 thousand plus tests per million, Italy and Spain roughly
double, France and Sweden roughly half.
Still think there are two groups of current situations- one
with higher mortalities and positive cases (per capita) which
also exhibited a "curve" in sharp increase of cases, some kind
of plateau, and then a decrease. The second situation has lower
mortalities and cases and much flatter "curves".
Explanations I can come up with?
1) The data are suspect at so many levels that any apparent
differences are random.
2) Some places inflated their numbers for whatever reason (incompetence,
an agenda, some general policy) while others may be underestimating.
3) We are catching the playing out of the waves at different
points in time. (This suggests there may have been earlier infections
in some places?)
4) There are true differences in how on the same time scale
the virus hits different populations depending on their health.
5) There are different strains out there of varying virulence
producing some very different outcomes.
Russia and Brazil now seem to be on the big rampup of cases
and deaths.... Why "later"? And Japan and South Korea have never
had high numbers of cases or deaths....
Crazy and crazy making stuff!
Jose
I confess have not made a deep dive into the data because
I have a feeling it will be a a tar-baby and I have other distractions,
chief among them being the freshwater leak. That's my excuse. That and
compulsively reading Zero Hedge as the trainwrecks compound.
I always figured Obama was dirty. He was
always just too smooth and slick. I'm wondering how far this will
unravel.
Given the five options, though, it is easy to shoot
from the hip and rate them as to probability in my mind. I think they
all apply to some extent. Most are unknowable.
Probability:
1). <50% +/- 2). 100% 3). 95% 4).
75%? 5).100%
And weighting...
1). 15 2). 25 3). 10 4). 10
5). 40
That is a quick and dirty and very non-scientific lazy
response, I know, but as Jose says, "Crazy and crazy making stuff!".
True! And that is just looking at the crude and poorly
defined virus data.
I know without too much thought that this problem is
insoluble except in terms of a plethora of parameters, mostly unknown
and/or unknowable, so the solution is not really a solution, but merely
another problem.
Okay. I'm
a sucker for punishment. I give in. Here goes...
We need also to consider
Environment: temperature, sunlight, humidity,
pollen, and especially pollution. I think pollution is a huge
factor in China and the hard-hit industrial part of Italy and maybe
even NYC.
Population density has been mentioned as well
cultural practices (kissing, hugging, multi-generational families).
Rural is different from urban.
Genetics. Won't touch this one right now.
Housing age, type and quality, air exchange,
and dominant heating systems factor in. So does the dominant method
of transport and amount of travel.
Climate and weather must have influence. Time
outdoors has an effect. Vitamin D has been mentioned as beneficial.
Word is that the virus does not like temps over 75F and high humidity.
(That is partly why I am here and why I shop late in the day when it
is hot, not early in morning at the special time set aside for seniors
but the day is still cool).
Shopping habits matter, too. Large box
stores with good air management are different from small local stores,
open markets and home delivery. Daily shopping differs from living
out of a garden and freezer.
Dining habits have an effect. I have had my worst
colds after eating in restaurants. Road Town gave me a most memorable
cold and I got the dire rear recently eating at a palapa restaurante
at Playa Tesoro. Restaurants, cafes, patios are a daily habit
in some cultures.
Politics and economics: We aren't even touching
the politics and economics.
This whole phenomenon is n-dimensional where n is a
large number and my head explodes even if I discard detail and just
try to work with outlines.
Error. Buffer Overflow. "Does not compute".
In short, having started to look deeper, I can see that
we are comparing apples to oranges to pears to coconuts. We are trying
to divide by zero in a number system that does not support that operation.
To compare, we need homogeneous populations or a finite
number of known differences. Here, we are looking at many distinct populations
and even populations within populations. I doubt our analytical
tools are suited to this and any 'answers' we get will be garbage.
Unless we just guess. Human intuition is amazingly accurate
if unpolluted by 'reason'.
Andres finished and I paid him. He wanted a tip. Very
funny. I gave him a beer, though. He also, as I expected, got
more work from passersby.
He's an opportunist. I respect that. I respect
anyone who gets out and hustles.
Jeff, a neighbour on this dock, had left me a note that
he has an air conditioner for sale, so after the heat of the day, I
walked over and met him, and we walked to his bodega to look at what
he has. He had two and both are cheap, but also quite old.
I decided to think about it.
He was going to Chedraui and has a truck, so I caught
a lift to Bandidos to return beer bottles and get some beer. Seems they
are sold out of bottled beer, but do have draft, so I had several, then
walked back to Baja Magic.
I had supper, watched various YouTube videos, and went
to bed at nine-thirty.
"Collusion against Trump" timeline
Kellyanne Conway
On The 2016 Presidential Election
China Has Jailed Hundreds Of People For Questioning Official
COVID-19 Narrative, Report
And I cannot get back on Facebook.
Quote of the Day
A lie gets halfway around the world
before
the truth has a chance to get its pants on.
Winston Churchill
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Sunday May
17th 2020
Today A mix of sun and cloud. Wind becoming southwest 20
km/h near noon. High 22. UV index 8 or very high.
Tonight Partly cloudy. Wind southwest 20 km/h becoming light
this evening. Low 9.
I got up at six-thirty.
Again, I'm still at the dock in La Paz and still happy to be here.
Tucker: Big Tech censors dissent over coronavirus lockdowns
Catherine corrects me.
I said:
"In the USA, Trump did suspend flights from China....."
She says:
At the beginning of February he only restricted (it was not
a ban) which travelers could come into the U.S. from, or by
way of, China. Flights from China continued to land in the U.S.
with all U.S. citizens (and/or their spouses and families) being
allowed entry - tens of thousands of people continued coming
from China.
All of February and into March he did literally nothing more
on the coronavirus issue (no test development, no PPE stockpiling,
etc) except to say there were only a few cases of covid-19 and
it was all going to go away.
Around the middle of March he did another travel restriction
(again, not a ban) for travelers coming into the U.S. from Europe.
Again, all U.S. citizens (and/or their spouses and families)
coming from, or by way of, Europe were allowed entry - and there
were NO restrictions on entry into the U.S. for ANY traveler
coming from the UK or Ireland.
p.s All U.S. citizens AND permanent residents (and/or their
spouses and families) were allowed to enter the U.S. from China
and Europe.
Those travel restrictions were also the recommendation of Alex
Azar (with the full backing of his department) and not - as
Trump likes to say - Trump's idea and done in spite of "everyone"
being against it.
I think my point was that the US acted more decisively
and earlier than Canada and when we did act, our chief medical health
officer instructed the border authorities to remove all reference to
China in the advice to arrivals and did not institute health checks
or any other measures until very late and totally fumbled protecting
seniors' residences. (However, as I understand it, much of that falls
to the states).
How Canada responded to COVID-19
from 'low risk' to 'serious'
True, Trump did not appear to see the virus as much
of a threat early on, but he was also very distracted by the impeachment
matters as I recall. He was also constrained by the advice he was receiving.
Fact is that the virus has proven to be less lethal by far than many
claim, with some local exceptions.
I confess to only recently having had much interest
in US politics and until very recently pretty much accepted the party
line pumped out by the MSM in both the USA and Canada. However,
I came across a lot of little things that were causing an increasingly
me a feeling of cognitive dissonance.
As a result of that, and the discovery of the real intentions
of power freaks in government and media as revealed by their naked exploitation
of the virus opportunity and, now, surprise revelations of an attempted
soft coup I am interested. The ongoing seppuku by the once credible
Democratic party is as fascinating as it is puzzling.
Not only is the prime Democratic candidate incoherent,
Obama's recorded comments about the accusations sounded intoxicated.
Interesting times. The future of "Western Civilization"
is balanced on a knife edge. A feather or a zephyr could tip it either
way and most of our 'leaders' don't seem to notice or are seemingly
biased towards totalitarianism.
So, along comes this:
Conrad Black: Trump is nailing it (but the mainstream media
would never tell you that)
(Conrad Black founded the National Post)
And before people point out that
Conrad
Black is a convicted criminal and that Trump pardoned him, let me
say that at the time I did not like what Black did with Massey-Fergusen,
or Hollinger, or think much of his seeking the peerage, but fact is,
he played by the rules and took advantage of them, but have come to
understand better and to respect his intellect. Who am I, a beekeeper
living on a boat, to judge?
Black was taken down on a technical hit, and sentenced
by a kangaroo court. He had made enemies and was an outsider by choice
and, like Trump, not protected.
That said let's watch and see if Obama gets the full
treatment and maybe indicted for skating too close to the edge.
He should and so should his gang, but I'm betting not. He is
protected.
Where to Worry About Catching Covid-19, and Where Not
To
How the coronavirus spreads in the real
world.
“There are some trends emerging,” she
says. “Spending time dining together, being in public transport,”
might risk spreading the disease, but “going to a market
briefly, for five minutes or a transient encounter while
you walk or run past someone, those are low risks.”
"The two drivers of the spread of the
disease are close contact and crowding in closed spaces...
It spread through homeless shelters and nursing and care
homes, where people were crowded with many others. It spread
through people’s households, and through meat packing plants."
"In the real world, most people transmit the disease to
nobody, or one person, and a minority infect many others
in so-called super-spreading events. It's those we must
learn how to avoid.
"The data show that nine percent of infected
people are responsible for 80% of the transmissions"
"People passing by you in a supermarket
are unlikely to infect you. Outdoor environments appear
much safer as well. In one study, which followed hundreds
of cases, all but one transmission occurred indoors."
“I’d like people to stop wasting mental
energy on the wrong things,” Bromage says. “To stop worrying
about outdoors and bike riders since it’s such a low risk.”
SARS-CoV-2–Fighting T Cells Found in Recovered Patients
"...Although it doesn’t provide a conclusive
answer, a study published yesterday (May 14) in Cell appears to
be good news on the immunity front. Researchers at the La Jolla
Institute for Immunology in California took blood from 20 adults
who’d recovered from COVID-19 and exposed the samples to proteins
from the SARS-CoV-2 virus. All of the patients had CD4+ helper T
cells that recognized the virus’s spike protein, and 70 percent
of them had CD8+ killer T cells that responded to the same protein.
“Our data show that the virus induces what you would expect from
a typical, successful antiviral response,”...
I finally began on the water leak again. It's been weeks
now. I have been reluctant to open that can of worms again and have
been able to get by if I don't run the pressure up. Just the same,
it has to be done even if it means ripping out some woodwork.
It is one PM and I just heard a passenger jet pass overhead
going north for the first time in weeks.
Study Points To COVID-19 Lab Creation; Lead Author Suggests
'Forced Selection' Vs. Genetic Engineering
I began to do an engine oil change and found the oil
change pump is seized. I could change oil without that system,
but figured I should fix it and dug out the manual.
Next, I decided to walk to Bandidos to get some beer
and off I went.
I returned and was reading my email. Seems Catherine
disagrees with me in detail on quite a few (most?) points regarding
US politics. That is not surprising, seeing as her view is pretty well
the public narrative and I am rejecting it. I could reproduce
the points here, but I know the futility of debating such issues and
merely note the disagreement and move on.
Either you see it or you don't. Facts are elusive and
slippery. Even if the facts are agreed, personal perspective and
personal experience determine the significance and implications assigned
to each fact and set of facts. Permutations and combinations become
infinite quickly.
It has been said that if everyone agrees, no
one (or maybe only one) is thinking. Debating is typically more
of a sport and entertainment than a way of reaching truth, (whatever
truth is). While I excelled in such diversions at one time, and
rhetoric, these days I try to stay clear.
I
started going through the port aft locker in order to access the water
leak and came across a big electric cord that has been in my locker
for months now. I was going to take it to Victor, assuming it
must be his, but contacted Miguel first, just in case it is his and
he was glad to learn where it is and will come tomorrow to get it.
After finding another seized pump (that's three now)
and reading my email I was feeling discouraged, so I had supper and
watched Schitt's Creek until bed time around nine
Quote of the Day
Man is least himself when he talks in
his own person.
Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth.
Oscar Wilde
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Two years.
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Monday May
18th 2020
Today Mainly sunny. Increasing cloudiness this afternoon.
Wind becoming south 20 km/h gusting to 40 this afternoon. High
21. UV index 8 or very high.
Tonight Cloudy. Becoming partly cloudy this evening. Wind south
20 km/h gusting to 40 becoming light this evening. Low 10.
I
woke at one and could not sleep. I was stuffy. Breathing
exercises helped, but didn't put me back to sleep, so after a while,
I got up and had a shower (it is so nice to have the drain pump working
properly again), took some Benadryl, and went back to bed.
Next I knew it was seven-thirty.
* * * *
*
I've been here almost three months now and the next flight to Calgary
from SJD is July 4th as scheduled at present. That could change.
I can likely get back some other way, but so far I am happy here.
In fact I have thought seriously of moving here and applying for permanent
residency.
* * * *
*
I made a vegetarian stew and tidied a bit, then Miguel
came by at eleven to get his cord. We chatted a while, then drove to
Bandidos for a beer.
We had our beer and I went to pay and realised my wallet
is at home since I had been working and put it aside to empty my pockets.
So, Miguel paid.
We returned to the marina and he dropped me off.
Gold, Silver, Dollar, & Bonds Dumped Because 8 Healthy
Young People Didn't Die From Test Vaccine
The US is Dramatically Over-counting
Coronavirus Deaths
...medical examiners classify any deaths as
Coronavirus deaths when the postmortem test is positive. Even
people who died in suicides and automobile accidents meet that
definition...
...If you were in hospice and had already been
given a few weeks to live, and then you also were found to have
COVID, that would be counted as a COVID death...
...New York is classifying cases as Coronavirus
deaths even when postmortem tests have been negative. Despite
negative tests, classifications are based on symptoms, even
though the symptoms are often very similar to those of the seasonal
flu...
...The Washington Post reports they are concerned
that the CDC’s “antiquated” accounting system is double counting
cases and inflating mortality and case counts “by as much as
25 percent.” ...
...There are financial incentives that might
make a difference for hospitals and doctors. The CARES Act adds
a 20 percent premium for COVID-19 Medicare patients...
Two Trailblazing COVID -19 Researchers Dead In A Month
China's Disappeared Heroes & The Silence Of The West
There are none so blind as those who will not see.
Austrian Study Finds
"Sign Of Human Intervention"
In
COVID-19
A Complete List of Donald Trump’s Business Disasters
This was a better day, just another perfect day here in Paradise
After I fixed the oil change pump with minimal difficulty I walked
over to Banditos for some beer to take home.
It seems I have made friends of the owners now. That is partly
because they don't have a lot of business, I suppose.
When I lived up the street at 53 Antonio Navarro and when
my boat was under repair across the street from Bandidos at Victor's,
I actually considered Banditos a nuisance because of the traffic
and barbecue smells.
Aaron and I had supper there once because he likes to eat
out. It was okay. Now, the place is empty and doing take-away only
but somehow I get to sit there and drink beer with the owners.
I used to judge and get excited about things but as I age,
I see that "For everything there is a season, and a time for every
purpose under heaven."
I'm not much of a fan of "the Scriptures" and am aware how
books have been selected or rejected for inclusion for political
reasons du jour over the millennia, and translated between incompatible
languages and systems of thought, but somehow the meanings and feelings
in Ecclesiastes come through intact and and still resonate
today as clearly as they did millennia ago.
Ecclesiastes 2:3,17
I sought in mine heart to give myself unto wine, yet acquainting
mine heart with wisdom; and to lay hold on folly, till I might
see what was that good for the sons of men, which they should
do under the heaven all the days of their life…
I, the Teacher, was king over Israel in Jerusalem.
I applied my mind to study and to explore by wisdom all that
is done under the heavens. What a heavy burden God has laid
on mankind!
I have seen all the things that are done under the sun; all
of them are meaningless, a chasing after the wind.
What is crooked cannot be straightened;
what is lacking cannot be counted.
I said to myself, “Look, I have increased in wisdom more than
anyone who has ruled over Jerusalem before me; I have experienced
much of wisdom and knowledge.”
Then I applied myself to the understanding of wisdom, and
also of madness and folly, but I learned that this, too, is
a chasing after the wind.
For with much wisdom comes much sorrow;
the more knowledge, the more grief.
The words of the Teacher [a] son of David, king in Jerusalem:
“Meaningless! Meaningless!” says the Teacher. “Utterly meaningless!
Everything is meaningless.”
What do people gain from all their labors at which they toil
under the sun?
Generations come and generations go, but the earth remains
forever.
The sun rises and the sun sets, and hurries back to where
it rises.
The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round
and round it goes, ever returning on its course.
All streams flow into the sea, yet the sea is never full.
To the place the streams come from, there they return again.
All things are wearisome, more than one can say. The eye
never has enough of seeing, nor the ear its fill of hearing.
What has been will be again, what has been done will be done
again; there is nothing new under the sun.
Is there anything of which one can say, “Look! This is something
new”? It was here already, long ago; it was here before our
time.
No one remembers the former generations, and even those yet
to come will not be remembered by those who follow them.
So, why do I write?
"Is there anything of which one can say, “Look! This is something
new”? It was here already, long ago; it was here before our time."
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow; the more
knowledge, the more grief."
Thought
of the Day
An error does not become truth by reason
of multiplied propagation,
nor does truth become error because nobody sees it.
Mahatma Gandhi
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Tuesday May
19th 2020
Today Mainly cloudy. High 20. UV index 6 or high.
Tonight Partly cloudy. Becoming cloudy this evening. Low 9.
Again, I woke at one and could not get back to sleep. I finally did
sleep, though, and slept right through to seven-thirty.
I had breakfast, listened to the net, then Mich sent me an invitation
for a Zoom conference with Mom. That went very well and is a great
start to the day.
Over 100 Million in China’s Northeast Face Renewed Lockdown
While the cluster of 34 infections
isn’t growing as quickly the outbreak in Wuhan which
started the global pandemic last December, China’s swift
and powerful reaction reflects its fear of a second
wave after it curbed the virus’s spread at great economic
and social cost.
Past plagues offer lessons for society after the coronavirus
pandemic
Insight from an anonymous reader...
The Trump phenomenon in the U.S. is quite a
thing. I am not a fan of him, but still find his behaviors and
actions intriguing and to a degree enigmatic. I really cannot
figure out what he is after. Not that it matters much, as the
true decisions currently are being made by corporations and
lobbyists. But he is a master at annoying people and keeping
them on edge. Probably something that made him a successful
business person. If success is measured by taking advantage
of every possible business relationship, and government programs.
I cannot stand listening to any of the current politicians,
left or right. A group that was active in the 2000s in various
blogs saw through the Obama con job before he got elected. Such
a farce, and in contrast with Trump, such a smooth operator
and talker. And yet his policies are not that different.
And meant to comment on something you have probably noted: the
TDS, Trump derangement syndrome. It is really amazing how so
many are totally caught up in this emotion. They live for exposing
Trump, what he said, what he plans, what he tweeted, how stupid
he is. Really remarkable and actually kind of scary. I have
gobs of relatives and friends totally taken up by it. As if
it really matters. When we ask them what it actually means in
terms of policies or things that really affect the average person
all they can come up with is a list of appointments in judiciary
positions, regulatory positions, and some flashy executive orders
that really do not affect many situations or people. And so
many are caught up in this identity politics and differences
on social issues that really will not change (like abortion,
gay "rights", etc.) because society as a whole is culturally
in acceptance of all of them.
So expect kneejerks and anger if you do not tow the line of
finding Trump a constant threat to the world, the U.S. and society.
And add to that a few of the world leaders that presumably have
popped up in his image- like Bolsonaro in Brazil, Boris Johnson
in the UK, and some others.
PS: I should have pointed out that The Guardian
has just recently put out two fictional stories- on the apocalypse
of honey bees in North America, and on the threat of the great
Asian hornet to honey bees...
I reply...
I think DJT is a bit autistic and that accounts
for his bizarre way of speaking and acting. It works for him
as it keeps the chickens hypnotized.
If you watch his hands and not his mouth or animation, what
he is actually doing is more obvious. The guy is no fool and
has learned a lot over the years. He is playing poker against
some dangerous people and keeps his cards well out of sight.
Previous incumbents let China grow to where China has now become
a real and present danger to the West, with a Stalin-like leader
for life. (Hitler-like? Neither is good for liberty.)
Granted, China could have gone either way, democracy or fascist,
and we were all hoping they would grow up and be like us. We
happily stood by and let them pick our pockets for loose change.
However, the path chosen has now become really obvious lately
with Xi, and technology may make deposing him impossible without
unimaginable bloodshed.
Up until now, we have been seduced by all the almost free stuff
the Chinese made for us with their slave or almost slave labour,
and were willing to stand and watch, but 2020 has become decision
time.
I recall when I first started visiting the US and Mexico in
the mid eighties being astounded by how much stuff was being
sent over to the US and how little got to Mexico.
My impression is that DJT is constrained by the various interests
jostling his elbow and trying to kneecap him but is a more decent
guy than Obama who I thought was and is a real sleaze. Don't
ask me about Hillary.
DJT actually does seem to relate to the working guy and that
is the reason for his popular support.
I'm not a fan and not an American, but I think he was the best
possible available choice for the country in 2016 and continues
to look best in 2020.
Obama looks like he has been run over by a truck
after his stint and Trump is not looking any older thus far,
but more serious. He has had lots of failures, but Henry Ford
went broke twice before he hit his home run.
Plus DJT is experienced in bankruptcy, and the US is bankrupt.
I consider DJT to be a Rorschach test, and maybe more of an
IQ test. Anyone who cannot think of any good thing to say about
him fails. Anyone who can't see his flaws and errors, ditto.
As I say, he is a master at distraction and keeps small minds
busy with his inconsequential soap opera while he cancels the
follies of previous admins to the extent it is possible.
The messes in Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria won't be fixed
for a long time and thankfully he is not opening up more fronts
unless he has to face down China.
In that regard DJT is less likely to get us into a mess than
most others because he confuses the enemy. Heck, he confuses
his friends :)
I'm not getting much done today, but I did reinstall
the oil change pump and it works. I'm still avoiding the water leak.
My list is getting shorter. Maybe I should get groceries
and get back out to Falsa. Oh. Maybe not. I am waiting
for the new dinghy. Tomorrow? or as they say here, mañana? Mañana
can mean 'maybe'.
How long can I avoid facing the water leak? Maybe
I'll do some accounting.
Actually, I had a nice long nap, waking at four.
I reinstalled the oil change pump and read some of the
manuals, then had supper.
I
mentioned Obamagate earlier and a friend sent a link to a
Jimmy Dore
video, so I watched the video and noticed that he has a session with
Joe Rogan.
I enjoy Joe, so I figured that their session should
be good and it is worthwhile and pretty funny, but hugely time wasting.
(Sample Jimmy Fore tweets are at right, so if you happen
to be an Obama worshiper, you'll probably want to skip these videos--and
these guys are actually avowed lefties. That is how bad things are getting)
* * * *
*
After this morning's chat with Mom, and a Zoom video
call later with cousin Jack, I decided that video calls work much better
than phone calls. I'd also like to do more family meetings. I've
already been playing with Zoom and tonight decided to look at
Google Meetings.
Compared to Zoom,
Google Meetings is dead simple with almost no setup beyond figuring
how to give the browser camera and microphone permissions. I see that
it is supported on desktops but for Android requires a tablet version.
Mom uses an Android tablet. Will the iOS version run on
a iPad? Apparently. Bill uses Apple. I have not tried it yet in
a conversation. Mañana
* * * *
*
Maybe Inflatable Bob will have the dinghy ready tomorrow.
If so, I may start heading out to Falsa again or even Balandra as I
hear Balandra is open.
Oh. I was supposed to send Mich a list of family
email addresses for Mom but got distracted culling my address book
and did not finish the job.
I watched more Schitt's Creek and have to say it is
droll and not unkind. That is saying something these days.
As I am about to go to bed I hear a car alarm.
It has been sounding for at least two hours off and on. Car alarms
are a nightly occurrence. Maybe it is just this one car every night.
Who knows? Who cares?
Read May
20th post >>
Thought
of the Day
Truth is a deep kindness that teaches
us to
be content in our everyday life and share
with the people the same happiness.
Khalil Gibran
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