Friday April 10th 2020
Good Friday

Quote of the Day
A day of worry is more exhausting than a week of work.
John Lubbock

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Saturday April 11th 2020

I wasted the entire morning on trying to get the Internet to work and reading when it did.

I'm at the dock today and not sure what to think. There are plenty of false rumours.  It seems we are free to come and go but some say not.  I checked it out and there are no legal limits other than closed businesses and a request to stay home, which most of us are observing.  Nothing very draconian here.  Three people have died in BCS.  Two, apparently, were obese pregnant women with diabetes.

There was a rumour of a lockdown but it proved false. I reported today on Facebook.

SeaMar and Lopez are boating supply stores we depend on for boating stuff.

I filled my water tank, had a nap, and wasted more time on the Internet.  In the process, I downloaded a YouTube video downloader.  Used to be we could download YouTube videos on the web page but not any more. Even the extensions don't seem to work. We now need a third-party app.  This the one I chose and it seems to work well.

I spent a lot of time fighting the Internet on my laptop and my phone. Whereas it was once easy to renew the cellular data, now the websites don't work and the on-phone option ends in a phone call in Spanish with press this, press that, options I don't understand.

Quote of the Day
Strive not to be a success, but rather to be of value.
Albert Einstein

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Today A mix of sun and cloud with 60 percent chance of flurries. Wind north 30 km/h gusting to 50. High minus 3. Wind chill minus 17 this morning and minus 10 this afternoon. UV index 5 or moderate.
Tonight Partly cloudy with 60 percent chance of flurries. Wind north 30 km/h gusting to 50 becoming light this evening. Low minus 16. Wind chill minus 12 this evening and minus 20 overnight.

I woke at five and got up. I was vaguely hearing some talk on the helm VHF which had been left on up in the cockpit.  My main VHF seems to have antenna problems ever since the last rain.

What to do today? Not too many options since we are requested not to walk around much. Work on the boat? Learn Spanish?

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That was the best night's sleep in a while, and I am not complaining about my sleep on previous nights.  I woke at 0630 and the day is turning out sunny and warm.  I had breakfast and got to work on chores.

Well, it is getting close.  I saw medics in serious masks carrying away a woman on a gurney on the dock across the way at Marina Don Jose.

*   *   *   *   *

Here is a very good article:

How Viruses Work

Also, I've assumed that to cause clinical disease takes more than one and maybe hundreds of individual viruses, so I went searching.

I've been working on the assumption that slow low exposures to the viruses over time would prime our immunity and result in resistance to anything short of a massive insult.  I've also postulated that the tendency for Wuflu cases in health care workers has been due to massive exposures of many variations of the virus over short periods.  Putting people on respirators is especially hazardous due to the close physical contact and mists generated in the process.

Infectivity info is hard to find, but here is the best I came across.  Mind you, this is some other virus, in a lab, on a larva.

One Virus Particle Is Enough To Cause Infectious Disease

"...Experimental research with insect larvae at Wageningen University and Simon Fraser University in Canada has shown that one virus particle is theoretically enough to cause infection and subsequent disease."

"The experiment showed that exposure to a low dosage of virus particles resulted in a small number host infections (20%). The majority of these hosts (86%) turned out to be infected by a single virus genotype."

"In contrast, exposure to a high dosage of virus particles resulted in virtually all the hosts (99%) becoming infected, where most of the hosts were infected by both types of virus. Only 14% were infected by only one of the two variants."...
 

This somewhat supports my thesis, but also allows for an element of chance as to which of the variants arrives first, the more lethal or the more benign.  If we were a larva, it seems that one bad one would do us in.

Still wondering.  Is it better to get a little exposure or hide out? 

I like this article:

What You Need to Know About Infectious Disease.

And just for fun. (Canadians only.  Americans, you have your own guy.)

If only it weren't true.

I walked to SeaMar and had my Internet cable tested, bought some varnish for the cabin sole, and walked back.  I plugged in the cable and guess what: it works.  Who knows what the issue was.  Anyhow, the major advantage of being here at the dock is free, fast internet and unlimited water and power.  That, plus showers on shore which I seldom use.

Quote of the Day
Never put off till tomorrow what may be done day after tomorrow just as well.
Mark Twain

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Tuesday April 14th 2020

I'm up at seven.  Had breakfast and started trying to fix my little heater.  I spent an hour with little result so far.

Next on my list is the Internet cable that tested good but does not work. I connected it between my router and the laptop with no signal where as my other Ethernet cord is recognized.  While I'm at SeaMar, I'll see about a new VHF antenna.  How to get to the top of the mast, sixty feet up is another matter.  I hope it is the antenna, and not the coaxial cable at fault.  For that matter, it could just be some bird crap on the antenna shorting it, but I get a 3:1 SWR across the marine VHF frequencies.

Allen, one simple tip I keep reading about is “proning”. That is as simple as sleeping on your stomach. If one has the misfortune to have difficulty breathing, especially a heavy person, laying on the back causes the belly and guts to impede the full expansion of the lungs. Laying on the stomach takes that weight off the lungs and allows for fuller expansion. I hope you never need this tip, but it is worth knowing about.

Regards.
Adrian.

In fact, I had just recently heard of this being used in hospitals when patients have trouble breathing.  Good tip. 

About the same time, I have been hearing that using a respirator may be exacerbating problem in some cases as the issue is low oxygen.  The contention is that forcing air into damaged lungs can cause additional  to the lungs whereas enriching the oxygen in the air that is being naturally aspirated may be an effective and gentler approach. 

Interestingly, that was one of my first thoughts when this started and I saw oxygen tanks for sale in the swap meet. Everyone said, no, that can't work, but I'll bet it can in mild cases.

I also wondered about SCUBA gear since the second stage provides air under slight pressure and I always love how easy it is to breathe with SCUBA tanks.

Another thing that just came across the desk is that there are at least two versions of the virus and when people get one, it is usually not too bad, but the problem is when they get both at the same time.

Makes sense to me because , as I have often said, the stories I hear simply do not add up under the official line.

I had recent cardiac tests and my EKG was fine, but I wonder...

I arranged for Luis to have a man go up the mast to see what is wrong with my VHF but he can't come until Thursday  I really want it to be working properly when I go out to anchor.

*   *   *   *   *   *

My pond is filling almost a month late.  A sure proof of Global Warming.

And the front yard and drive are melting.

*   *   *   *   *   *

One other thing on the WuFlu.  Everyone is waiting for Quinn the Eskimo.

...
"Every girl and boy
But when Quinn the Eskimo gets here
Everybody jump for joy"
....
Everybody's just standin' around 'neath the trees
Feeding pigeons on a limb
But when Quinn the Eskimo gets here
Then pigeons will go to him
...

There are lot of believers.  The vaccine is coming and will save us.  What if it doesn't?  Anyone thought about that?

What Do Countries With The Best Coronavirus Responses Have In Common? Women Leaders

Never been a doubt in my mind.

I chatted with folks on the dock, then walked to Oxxo. Along the way, I saw that Bandidos is open.  I returned,watched more of Forrest Gump, then went to bed. 

Some old movies look horrible in retrospect, but Forrest Gump is still a great movie IMO.

Hmmm.  That's two very different movies in a row with Sally Field. 

Quote of the Day
Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life.
Don’t be trapped by dogma – which is living with the results of other people’s thinking.
Steve Jobs

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Wednesday April 15th 2020

Today Cloudy. 60 percent chance of flurries this morning. Becoming a mix of sun and cloud this afternoon. Wind north 20 km/h gusting to 40. High plus 2. UV index 5 or moderate.
Tonight Partly cloudy. Becoming clear overnight. Wind north 20 km/h becoming light this evening. Low minus 8. Wind chill minus 12 overnight.

I woke up at 0330 and find I am up and awake.  I tried going back to bed but my mind is running fast

Andony started a thread on Facebook with a quote from Jefferson and wandered into Kant. That took me back to my time pondering philosophy.  I posted a bit and then realised that I don't accept the basic premises underlying the arguments and am beating my head against a wall, so am bowing out.  Ideas are too big and multi-dimensional to fit into words.  Even trying makes my head explode.

Yesterday I had the Internet cable repaired and uninstalled SurfShark, even though I have an active subscription. Surfshark was giving me trouble over and over.  Next, I tried Goose VPN, found I could not stream from Canada, uninstalled it, and subscribed to NordVPN.

For the past week, my computer has been horribly sluggish, crawling, lagging., and freezing  That seem to be over now.  Suddenly my computer is fast again.

Not just that, but my speed has doubled through the wifi router. Shows what a bad cable can do to slow things down,  Before changing the one fitting, I was getting half that wifi speed before it quit entirely.

*   *   *   *   *

Mortality rate of COVID-19 patients on ventilators
"Why do we need to know the mortality rate of patients who are on mechanical ventilation or suffer cardiac arrest?

"If the number of critically ill patients exceeds the current supply of intensive care beds and ventilators as occurred in Italy, it would help intensivists to triage. And if CPR is ineffective in these patients, we should not be subjecting caregivers to the risks involved in resuscitation."

I think if we are counting on a respirator to save us, that hope is an iffy one. Better to not get to that point in the first place.

How to avoid that?  I have no idea that does not involve solitary confinement.  After all, one credible story is that the virus escaped a well-secured lab.  As always, life is a crapshoot.

*   *   *   *   *

New topic: Stay away from Ccleaner.  It used to be a good program but the new features will clean away things that you actually find useful every day unless you are a spy or a child pornographer.

Last time I updated and ran Ccleaner, it removed, of all things, my restore points and on Ccleaner's default settings, it will clean all your histories and jump lists without warning.

Moreover, each new version adds more 'cleaners' with default set to 'On".  You may not want them "On".  I like my jump lists and I like my download and applications histories...

I went back to bed and slept until seven-ten.

Food for Thought: COVID-19 and Annual Flu Mortality Compared
Note: WuFlu numbers are to date.
Flu figures are annual

Coronavirus – It’s Not Heart Disease, It’s A Plane Crash
Re: Perspective and fraudulent reporting of WuFlu deaths.

Why Lockdown? Ignorance, Cover-up, Conspiracy, or Trauma?

*   *   *   *   *

My mast top VHF antenna is suspected of acting up, so I called the the radio shop, then took the radio there to have the front end sensitivity checked.  I enquired about buying an antenna and returning it if it turns out I don't need it. They agreed. 

I'm still unable to communicate well in Spanish.  I gave them my phone number in Spanish and said a few other things that were understood, but the rest depend on their limited English.

Gotta love Mexicans.  Mexicans, with few exceptions, are the most patient and good-humoured people.  Adversity, I have heard it said, builds character and Mexicans have had a lot of adversity.

Gillian always wanted me to ask the price in advance, for example when the fisherman offered us gasoline, but except when dealing in the market, I never ask. I know the cost will be fair and to ask is an insult to someone doing a favour. 

I grew up in a mining town and the working man will never screw you if you are one. We know one another on sight.  There is no secret handshake, but there are shibboleths.

That said, I wonder what they will charge for a simple sensitivity test that takes five minutes for a slow technician. I'll know by four today.

I had other errands, but I looked at my list and none seem important right now so returned to Baja Magic.

*   *   *   *   *

And now for something completely different:
Is David Icke insane, or is there anything he could possibly be right about?

Okay. I knew this had to be coming and it is coming soon to a neighbourhood near you.  You simply cannot lock a population in a 'free' country down for more than a week or two before something blows up.

Frankly, I figured it would have happened before now.

Lockdown-Backlash Begins: Angry Crowd Surrounds Capitol, Demands Michigan Governor Reopen Economy

I sure hope this knocks some fear into the politicians who are locking everything down because they fear being criticized for letting anyone be at risk. 

Up until now, they have had little pressure about the damage that lockdown does or the less visible and indirect harm that comes from freezing the economy as it is spread out over the population and over time.

Let's hope this sobers them up.

Pitchfork time, people.

The shop called and said my radio had been tested and was ready so I walked over again and picked it up and bought a new antenna in case the one on the boat is shot. I can return it if it is not needed.  The radio was fine and the charge for testing was about a dollar.  The antenna, though was close to one hundred.

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Thursday April 16th 2020

I paid him but he did not have change for the $100 I gave him, so he left and came back and gave me two twenties as change.  After he left, I realised he had given me back the 100 before he went for change, so I contacted Luis and he will be back.

I wasted few hours reading more about this pandemic online and cooked up some rice. Here is an article about the history of pandemics worth reading:

Pandemics and the Shape of Human History
Most enlightening. 
How well does the WuFlu measure up to the classics?  Will we have riots?

I am getting really tired of the pandemic. So far five people in La Paz have died according to the official sources. I don't have the details, but I do know that several were in questionable health sans the virus.

I Ubered to Ace Hardware and bought some tools, then walked to Ley, the major grocery store next door.  I bought groceries, but the visit reminded me why I don't like Ley.

Then, Uber took me home and I disinfected my purchases and here I am.

I had supper, a nap, wasted more time on the Internet, and had a nap, then went for a shower. I have enough hair now that I have to wash it once in a while.

Quote of the Day
Facebook just sounds like a drag, in my day seeing pictures of
peoples vacations was considered a punishment
Betty White

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Friday April 17th 2020

Today Mainly cloudy. 60 percent chance of showers this afternoon. Wind west 20 km/h gusting to 40 becoming north 30 gusting to 50 early this afternoon. High 10. Wind chill minus 10 this morning. UV index 5 or moderate.
Tonight Cloudy. 60 percent chance of rain showers changing to 60 percent chance of flurries overnight. Wind north 30 km/h gusting to 50. Low minus 1.

I woke at six. I've been here at the dock in La Paz for week now.  I came in with thoughts of returning north, but that idea went away after I took a good look at my alternatives.

The social scene here has slowed a lot.  Restaurants and the clubhouse are closed. Boats have left and on remaining boats, the owners have been keeping to themselves.  Around town, activity is greatly reduced, but the hardware store was open and grocery stores are active.

As for the virus, some places worldwide seem to be having issues, but in many the hospitals are quiet.  Here in La Paz, there is no indication of medical staff from WuWHOFlu or bodies piling up. 

Medical facilities are strained here at the best of times, but, in fact, only five virus-related deaths have been recorded to date in this municipality of about 300,000. 

The people seem cool about it all and many don't bother with masks. Many do, as much to appear in fashion as for worry about infection, I suspect. I doubt mine does much except hide my smile.

The weather at home is expected to warm a lot, so runoff can be expected in the next day or two. I see the pond is full.

 

What are my plans?  I don't have any.  Events will determine my course. Apparently the effects of the virus in Alberta are minimal, really, and here, if the reporting is accurate, nothing much is happening.  I'm sure the distancing measures are helping and maybe low and slow exposure will result in a buildup in tolerance.  I hope so.

What will happen eventually?  I suspect the pressure to get back to 'normal' will result in re-openings before long, but with restraints on the size of events and a continuation of social distancing, but in a more relaxed form.  Already, people are beginning to stir, and now that people have become aware of how to take precautions and reduce risk, there will be little need for enforcement.

The game changer will be the arrival of a cheap and easy universal test for active cases and a test for immunity.  That latter test will be the big liberator, assuming that immunity is achieved after exposure.  If not, we are in big trouble.

Again, assuming immunity is possible, as with many previous epidemics, this one will eventually run its course as everyone gets exposed.

As for a vaccine, I have my doubts as to whether a vaccine with great efficacy will come around. In spite of the inevitable hype that accompanies launch of any new product, we'll find it works far less well in the field than in advertising.  I get my flu shot every year on the first day but am quite aware that typical efficacy is lower than many expect at about 45% this year.  The 2018-2019 flu vaccine was 29 percent effective.  Just the same, that is better than nothing.

Would 45% or 29% contain the WuWHOFlu? That is questionable if a vaccine does not stop the super-spreaders as this virus is reputed to be far more transmissible that the previous influenzas.  Who knows? Can we believe anything we are told?  There are many contradictory claims presently.  Even though they seem contradictory, they may all have some element of truth.

There are believers and believers tend to believe just about anything, and there are doubters and doubters tend to doubt even fairly convincing proof.

Besides the vaccine panacea everyone is waiting for to make this go away, perhaps, with all the brains focused on this issue currently, a solution will be found, and I'm thinking maybe a solution that is not a traditional vaccine.

Facebook 'Fact Checker' Worked At Wuhan Biolab; Ruled Out Virus-Leak While 'Debunking' Articles
The plot thickens.

The History Of Hydroxychloroquine In India
Gin and tonic.

*   *  *   *   *   *

From
It’s a matter of days before Mexico enters phase three of Covid-19 crisis

Among Covid-19 patients aged 60 or over, the fatality rate is 17.1 per 100 cases and for those aged 25-59 it is 5.6. There has only been one coronavirus-related death among those younger than 25 – a 2-year-old girl with a congenital heart defect died in Tabasco on Tuesday.

The overall fatality rate in Mexico is 7.52 per 100 cases. According to Health Ministry data, 43% of those who have died suffered from hypertension, 38% had diabetes, 34% were obese and 12% had chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

As the percentages indicate, some of the deceased suffered from more than one existing health problem.

*   *  *   *   *   *

Before lunch, I managed to renew my Telcel data, untied and motored out to Bahia Pichilingue.  I called the port captain to report and that went easily.

The trip across was idyllic.  The sea was dead calm and the sun was bright. I fund my favoured spot, anchored and had a swim.  Perfect. 

Quote of the Day
Puritanism: The haunting fear that someone, somewhere, may be happy.
H.L. Mencken

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Saturday April 18th 2020

New Study Shows US Coronavirus Infections "50- To 80-Fold Higher" Than Believed

Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

A neighbour posted this picture. Finally we have runoff.

Another useless alarmist article.  At least they admit it at the end. Read the excerpt.
CDC report: COVID-19 can spread 13 feet in air, possibly travel on shoes

"However, researchers noted their study had two limitations. “First, the results of the nucleic acid test do not indicate the amount of viable virus. Second, for the unknown minimal infectious dose, the aerosol transmission distance cannot be strictly determined,” they wrote.

"The study concluded that by March 30, no staff at the hospital had been infected with the virus, indicating that appropriate precautions can effectively prevent infection.

"To read the full study, click here.

COVID-19 Lethality Not Much Different Than Flu, Says New Study

In Sweden, Will Voluntary Self-Isolation Work Better Than State-Enforced Lockdowns in the Long Run?

Here's Why A Coronavirus Vaccine Might Not Happen Within 18 Months

More reasons

A protest to re-open Wisconsin has grown in Brookfield off Bluemound & Moreland.

Is this true?  I don't know.
The first part appears to be.
The second?  Dunno.

I did a few chores, went snorkeling, swam several times and made beans and rice.

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Sunday April 19th 2020

Okay.  Here we go.  We'll find out the truth soon.  What the truth is, I really have no clue.

Crowds Swarm Florida Beaches Amid Phased Reopening

This whole matter has turned into a food fight between the conformist shamers and the skeptical libertarians. 

Then there are those of us in the middle, ducking missives from both sides. IMO, "Nobody is right if everybody's wrong". 

Can't we all just get along?  Live and let live?

I hate to get into the 9/11 conspiracy, but now there is this.
Attorney General Barr Blocks Release of 9/11 Documents Despite Promises to Victims’ Families
Where there is so much smoke, there has to be fire, and many think it is not the Saudis that are being protected.
Let's leave it there. 'Nuff said.

How about this!
Germany’s largest paper to China's president:
You're endangering the world
Did Xi miscalculate?
Will this be the end of him?

And while I'm at it, this is a long read, but very illuminating.
Kyle Bass: On US and China Fallout and Recovery from COVID 19, and Hong Kong’s Looming Banking Crisis

We've never made a successful vaccine for a coronavirus before. This is why it's so difficult

*    *   *   *   *   *

I've been anchored here by myself at Bahia Pichilingue for a few days now, keeping my head down.  There is a quedate en casa order and the beaches are closed.  Beach closure is enforced by police.

Cruisers are allowed to anchor out in our 'houses' but expected to maintain distancing and obey the rules.  We do.

This morning around nine, I heard and outboard and loud voices nearby.  I looked out and it was a powerboat full of young Mexicans openly drinking beer early on a Sunday morning, being towed by a small fishing panga.

They were towed to the nearby boat launch and a while later the bigger boat with the young men came back out and stopped near my boat.  They shouted to ask if they could charge their phone on my boat.

Charging a phone takes a long time.  Chances are they are okay, and we might have even had a fun time, but they were very flagrantly breaking the rules about social distancing and I know the cops come by regularly.  I figured I'd like to to stay out of trouble. I indicated I did not understand and waved them away.

I was below a while later and looked out to see them swimming near shore and a while later, I heard really loud music.  When I went up to look, behold! a Mexican seven-piece band with a drummer, tuba, trombone and horns was set up at the waters edge playing in my general direction.  I trusted it had nothing to do with me. 

The guys in the boat seemed to know the band and they all mingled there at the water's edge.  That went on for an hour or more, then a cop car showed up with flashing lights and siren.  They turned off the siren and two big cops walked over to the band.

There as a lot of walking back and forth and a lot of shouting for about ten minutes.  Then the cops left with one of the band members in the back.

The band played another tune or two, then packed up and left.

*    *   *   *   *   *

Young COVID-Positive Redditors Describe Agony Of Ongoing Symptoms Nearly Two Months After Getting Sick

Oh oh. Jalisco (Not Baja California Sur)  is going into mandatory stay at home rules with penalties. 

Included in those not allowed out are those over 60.  How will that work if that gets to BCS?  I'm over 60.

We'll see, I suppose.

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