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I woke at two and checked my cameras. I see a bright light on the camera that points out the driveway. I gather they are still working on the problem. The train appears to be gone, but I imagine the truck full of propane is still on its side. The timestamp is an hour off from here because Swalwell has switched to summer time. Here, we have not, yet.
I got up at seven and listened to the net. I have a dentist appointment to have one crown replaced at noon uptown. * * * * * *
Wikipedia: A Disinformation Operation? I have reduced my use of Google for searches for the same reason: censorship and bias. It seems we are entering a dark time after a brief enlightenment.
Home now after 28 hours... It's true and it was
horrible... We all could have been blown to bits and I would
have been the first house off the map, however, the entire
Hamlet would be gone, you can believe it. Me: Glad to hear that all is well. Is it all cleaned up now? Yes, it was extremely serious a B-train w/two huge tankers
full of propane. It was billowing out of them like crazy and the
slightest spark could have triggered an explosion. I think they
did a great job, although, I was w/friends and safe, it was very
stressful. I also didn't realize the propane is treated so it
can be seen like smoke, however, as it is heavier than air it
was billowing across the ground and lucky their was a wind
taking it under the train but travelling north. I showered and called Uber, arriving at Clinica Cosmedent right at noon. I spent an hour in the chair, then Uber took me to my bank. Before going in, though, I had lunch at a Chinese take-out next door in the strip mall. From there, I walked over to Chedraui and shopped a while, buying only some butter and an avocado, then walked out to Abosolo, caught a collectivo to Legaspy and walked to the boat. I did a hand laundry then had a nap. I have been exhausted lately. The Wuflu is finally being taken seriously and the news is full of it. I don't know what to think. I assume I will catch it sooner or later. Will it kill me? Who knows? I'm long past my best-before date. Sailors have done so much with so little for so
long
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I woke at three-thirty and am feeling better than I have in a while. Hope this lasts. Although the days have been unseasonably cool and breezy, the last two nights have been warm and both nights I have left the companionway and windows open. Bugs are not an issue here, although I encountered a few houseflies and fruit flies when I was out at Bahia Falsa. * * * * * * The Wuflu is all over the news, so I'll mostly leave it alone. It sounds as if major events are being cancelled in the US and Canada. I hear that the first case has been discovered in Sudbury.
It is now one week until Gillian arrives, after flying from New Zealand to San Francisco and then here, assuming everything is not locked down by then. The tipping points show up suddenly. We've already passed several, but the next one will be the 'Oh Shit' moment when it is everywhere all the time. The following article describes what happens when something doubles every day, week, or year. Where were all the 'precautionary principle' people who shut down everything with even minor or unproven risk when this one came along? It was obvious from the start that we would come to this and there is more to come.
Yesterday, I installed Adguard and uninstalled my other ad blocker. It made a difference. Today, after a day with Adblock, I did some additional configuring. Suddenly my browsing, which had been slowing, is fast again. Over time, the increasing burden that trackers, ads, and referrers built into on web pages has become huge. To load a typical site, the browser has to make calls to many tracking and ad sites and each call adds latency due to the each DNS request and the propagation times. If any of the multitude of servers is slow to respond, so is the page. Some pages never completely load for that reason. Filtering out the trackers and ads reduces the
page load by maybe three quarters or more. The difference
is very noticable.
Well, this looks like SHTF day. Denial is a thing of the past. We have seen the warmup. Now the capitulation begins. A waterfall is next. Looking at the Canadian market, I got out at 13,000 the day I had my heart episode on Aug 24th 2015. We are now within striking distance of that number again now at 14394. Three more days like this and we are there. Again.
I watched a bit more Cheers and went to bed around nine. Trouble knocked at the door, but, hearing
laughter, hurried away
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I woke at two and got up. I'm wondering if I am getting a cold. My throat is a bit dry. Maybe I slept with my mouth open? I wasn't sleeping well. I made coffee and had eggs for breakfast. I'll go back to bed but have doubts I'll sleep well.
Looking at the Dow futures, I see they are down over
There are four reported cases of the Wuflu in The Baja now, so I wonder where things go from here. Everything is converging.
I read my policy and there is no such exclusion on mine. That is good to know. I'll need to extend it since I'll be here more than the 30 days it covers. I'll have to renew by the 22nd or so. I'll put that off, though. Right now, who knows what will happen day-to-day?
Here is Chris Martensen's instructive video The other day I knocked a piece off my outboard hydrofoil and today I paid a diver 200 pesos to look but he could not find it. What am I doing today? It is beautiful, warm and sunny. I'm doing cleaning and throwing things out. I'm also downloading Linux Mint Cinnamon 19.3 (Tricia). I had the previous version running in a VM on this laptop, but I never have any luck updating from one release to another so am starting over. One thing to watch if running Linux beside or inside Windows is the danger of corrupting files if directories are shared. Be warned. This boat was set up for going offshore and had all the latest, plus spares of everything. I'm never going to be more than a week from a repair facility, so I am cleaning house.
Black Thursday:
Checking at Worldometers again and looking at the charts, they seem to be leveling off somewhat and the log charts are turning flatter, so maybe things are nit as bad as they sound now. That does not mean that a lot of people won't be sick and many more won't die, but the rte of increase seems to be tapering. Of course this could just be an artifact of the changing reporting levels and perhaps lowered vigilance as the matter becomes less novel and remarkable. People can get used to anything. Of course it is still serious. Read this:
When a girl marries she exchanges the attentions
of many men for the inattention of one.
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I'm thinking of going to the bays today. I can clean and discard just as well at anchor as here in town. IMO, You have to be born yesterday to fall for the climate hype. Here is an excellent blog with some interesting links, including a lot of links to scientists who disagree with the fake consensus. Some people have a lot more time and intellect to dig deep that I do. Some notes for climate skeptics I have no need or time to check it all out, but assume if you read my diary you have a critical mind and will do so to the extent necessary to decide.
Conrad Black: Coronavirus' political toll
Bumps in the trends are as likely due to reporting discrepancies between jurisdictions as actual cases. All this data is really, really questionable. At eleven, I untied and motored out of my mooring. There was not much wind, but the breeze and tide were with me as I headed north. At Punta Prieta, the wind picked up and carried me to Punta Colorado. There the wind shifted but I sailed right to the anchorage and dropped anchor. This time, I made sure the clutch did not slip and I was securely anchored first try. * * * * * * * Looks as if I even if I had doubts and decided to go home, I am committed to staying here in Mexico although Mexico is not overseas and has few confirmed cases.
Moreover, United informs me that my flight from Sudbury which I have yet to cancel because I was waiting for a no-penalty cancellation would not allow me on board so I'm guessing I'll be able to cancel with a refund. Bonus! How bad is this disease? Seems that for many it is a non-event. I wonder why some and not others.
Common sense is the collection of prejudices
acquired by age eighteen.
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We talked and she will work on it. If she cannot make it work, then I'll have to go home. I checked and I still can, apparently. Mexico is not banned. In fact there is almost no coronavirus in all of Mexico.
When I think of going home, I realise that I have a temporary cap that will not be replaced with the permanent crown until next Thursday. If I go home, that would be a problem. I really need to find a solution that does not require me to fly home.
What will I do today? Well, I'll wait for word from MLE, then decide. I can get a
flight tomorrow to get me home before midnight, but then I am home.
What then? I may reserve a flight. I can cancel within
24 hrs without penalty. I should also cancel my United flight.
I knew I would not use it some time back, but have waited for a no
penalty cancelation policy I'll get to work tidying the boat and probably head back to the dock in the afternoon. I'm trying to reach United Airlines to cancel, but the website is not responding. The news is extremely conflicting with news of bodes piling up and other equally convincing reports saying the sickness is much like a flu unless there are complications. Our Prime Minister is not even bothering being tested and showing up in public. What does that say? Of course, he does not have a reputation for much common sense. I'm in the target age group and have some mild pre-existing conditions. The last time I had the flu twenty-five years ago, it was bad enough to give me mild pneumonia. I recovered without ever seeking a doctor, so who knows?
I did just that and it was a very interesting hike. I covered about two miles including the ride ashore. The climb was fairly steep over rough terrain and through thorns, but the view was spectacular.
At two, I set sail for La Paz to arrive in time for tidal slack at four. I arrived on time and prepared to back down the narrow channel to my dock. The wind had picked up as I approached and I was under sail until I arrived. When I got to the entrance, I was unable to keep the boat straight so I decided to tie up at the end dock for a while and not chance going in until things calmed down. After a while the wind slacked a bit and I decide to chance it. I tried many times, but each time I approached the entrance the wind still blew the bow around and I had to abort. I gave up and went out to change the fenders and lines to the other side so I could go in forwards. That took a while and when I was done I simply motored in and tied up. My neighbours had been watching and were there to catch lines. I usually don't like assistance, but once in awhile it is very handy so I don't complain. I tied up with the stern out and had supper, got a message from MLE showing the burner working properly and managed to contact United to cancel my flight from YSB to SJD. There is no penalty due to the Wuflu, so now I have a credit with United. A reader sent me this interesting article about Zero Hedge.
I found the article quite amusing and confused and--from a Canadian perspective--somewhat obsessed with Russia. The language and assumptions are hugely slanted and all in all the entire matter is amusing--to me at least. One has to appreciate the Slavic sense of humour to see how this guy went for a ride. Russia is our other next door neighbour and the country that probably was pivotal in beating the Nazis, but to the US, Russia is a bogeyman. Russia is no more likely to try to steal territory Canada has claimed historically that the US is. Check it out. Moreover, I'm fairly sure that Putin is no worse than any recent US president and anything that can be said about Russian interference into the affairs of other countries and assassinations, etc. can probably be said doubly about the US, including the Bolshevik Revolution. Just sayin' I like to hear from both sides and include Al Jazeera sometimes. I had high hopes for Al Jazeera and thought we'd get a new and unique slant, but Al Jazeera turned out to be a disappointment and just another establishment lapdog. You can get most of their content anywhere. I like ZH because in spite of the craziness, there is a lot of good info and opinion that is hard to find. It is not for the gullible, though. Zero Hedge Reputation vs. New Republic Reputation They are both a little nuts. What can I say? Therefore do not worry about tomorrow,
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Sunday
March 15th 2020
I woke up at four-twenty and started the day.
I spent too much time here at the keyboard and then reserved a flight home on the 17th just in case. The virus is here, just as I assumed it must be. I plan to cancel within the 24 hour window, but have the flight if I need it. The flights over the next two days appear full as the price went up from $280 to $1300 overnight. People are taking the Canadian government's advice and heading home. Frankly, I am not sure that things will be any better there than here, but as things are avalanching I figured to keep an escape hatch open.
I went to the swap meet and did not buy anything. I took a TV that came with the boat and an extra dinghy air pump and they did not sell so I put them on the giveaway table. Now I am contemplating and thinking I'll go to Chedraui for more beans and rice. I need eggs and fruit, too. I really should learn to fish. I returned from the store and put things away. And, yes the S* is hitting the fan. Debugging is twice as hard as writing the code in
the first place.
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I woke up very early and started my day. After reading the news, I cancelled my flight home. I see there are still flights to YYC for the foreseeable future at good prices. I've been uncharacteristically active on Facebook:
Well, I have the day ahead of me. What to do? I've done about as much research as I should for now. I have some bookwork to do and should get down to that. I still have to sort stuff on the boat and organize the storage better. Maybe I'll wash the boat, too. I may take a trip to Walmart. We'll see.
Almost forgot to check the markets. No point though, it is freefall with no bottom in sight. Glad I'm not invested. I see the Canadian market is now below where I exited. The US market is in a waterfall decline but is still above the level five years back.
The Canadian dollar is the most annoying. My marina here in Mexico charges in USD. Once again, I spent too much time browsing and puttering but did get a fair bit of cleanup and sorting done.
I searched Amazon and see I can get similar motors for almost nothing but would have to match the dimensions and electrical characteristics and they are not given. I also wrote the manufacturer on the chance they offer replacements. They do offer other parts on their website. I also looked over the dive gear the neighbour dropped off on my deck. The men's BCD barely fits and is a bit tight as I have allowed myself to get a bit oversize again. I don't really know if I need the equipment, but am looking. G is an experienced diver and dive gear is something I've always considered getting. This is an opportunity. I quit at dusk, which is about six-thirty here and went below. My daughter had written and mentioned that if I don't go home now, it is hard to say when I will be able. I spent a lot of time thinking about that. My mind is made up, but as always, subject to change. G is coming Wednesday afternoon and my crown goes on Thursday. So far, there has been little concern here about the virus, but we did have one transient case we know about. Like the spread of the infection itself, awareness grows slowly but then suddenly explodes so I am hoping that I make it under the wire before the dentist decides working so intimately with people is dangerous. Canada has gone nuts and toggled from nonchalance to panic and I suspect the stock market drops have exacerbated the panic as people see their imagined net worth evaporate. Paper gains, paper losses. Not only that the real estate markets and pretty well everything else are being shut down or seizing up. I don't know which is worse, the disease or the counter measures, but people being people, when faced with a threat simply have to do something--anything--to feel in control of a uncontrollable situation. No matter what is done it will be criticized by one faction or another and doing nothing will draw fire from all sides. MLE texted that my furnace is acting up again. Now, there is a real reason to go home, but when I look at the Canada panel at this site, I have to say WTF? What are they thinking? Overreaction?? I think so. Girls do not dress for boys. They dress for
themselves, of course, each other.
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It's 0330 and I am up, drinking coffee and writing. The night is cool and I have closed up the hatches. The breeze is blowing offshore from the east at the moment and the rigging is making music. I see the Dow futures are down 2997 at the moment. The bottom is falling out. Looking at the world virus report, the total infections don't seem very high, actually, at 184,834 but I really don't know how they make up that number. The death rate is a matter of debate still. IMO The demographics and co-morbidity numbers are probably a useful estimate. 80% of cases are still reported to be 'mild'. Symptoms.
After the news that our Prime Minister told Canadians to go home to Canada right away, Westjet is cutting off service here after the 22nd. Of course prices have jumped. This getting really nuts. I grabbed a seat on the 22nd just in case. In Canada, our government and more of it's 'help' is not the solution. Government is the problem. Always.
A short pain is not like a long pain. (Chinese proverb). We are setting ourselves up for a long pain. A reader wrote:
I hit reply to thank her, but the email address was invalid. Thanks. I did see that product but did not know what it was. I've had breakfast and now, back to bed. I slept well and woke at 0740. I checked Facebook and see Rick caught something I missed when reading the announcement, if in fact I saw the entire announcement. The suspension is for 30 days.
Looking at the worldwide cases, things do not make sense. Out of billions of people, we only have maybe 100,000 cases?
As with many things, what is best for the crowd is the opposite of what is best for the individual. All the current recommendations are to the benefit of society as a whole, but may conflict with what is good for any one person. This whole thing requires deep thought.
Okay, I guess. It is over a week for her and a week+/- for the family. Incubation period is 2 - 14 days with possible outliers: 0 - 27 days
This group consists of people mostly over fifty and this is a group more likely to have a serious case. I have to remember that I am seventy-five although it hardly feels like it. I also was a smoker at one time. Not good. I'll continue to tidy and get ready to go sailing and see when/if G gets here what things look like then. My neighbour, Rob and his wife Linda plan to leave to tomorrow morning for a trip up the sea of indeterminate length.
I phoned Oene and my cousin, Don, and chatted and the more I think about it, the more staying here makes sense.
Dr. Gabe Mirkin's
Fitness and Health e-Zine
Good News: Healthy People Can Recover from COVID-19
in Three Days
Researchers tested the immune response to COVID-19 in an otherwise healthy woman in her 40s, who required hospital admission (Nature Medicine, March 16, 2020). Three days after the patient was admitted, her immune system produced huge amounts of several immune cells that are used to show that a person will recover from a seasonal influenza infection. This indicates that she had recovered in three days. Even though COVID-19 is caused by a brand-new virus never seen before, an otherwise healthy person was able to develop a healthy and normal immune response that signifies recovery. This helps to explain why more than 80 percent of COVID-19 cases are mild-to-moderate. However, other studies show that people can continue to shed the virus for 10-37 days (The Lancet, March 11, 2020), so they may still be contagious. The stock markets are up a bit today.
That Canadian dollar drop is annoying. I paid the marina monthly charge today and in USD. I washed the boat this afternoon and finished after dusk. It could use a second wash, but who cares? I wrote on Facebook again. I hardly ever do. Maybe I should not. I tend to be to be very direct and very non-PC, but...
As far as I can tell, 10% don't even know they have it, the rest suffer a bit, and 10% are on death's door. A very small percentage die and are usually people who would die from something else soon anyhow. What is the big fuss? Don't run away. Face it. The avoidance measures are bound to cause more indirect deaths than the disease. I watched some Netflix and went to bed. Netflix has been slow and stops to buffer lately even though my Internet is fast Don't sweat the petty things and don't pet the
sweaty things.
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I was up at 7, had breakfast and went to coffee. The topic was the Wuflu panic. Most of the expats seem set on staying here and seem quite informed. Some went to the US and came back to get out of the insanity. I've been cleaning house and re-organizing. My plan is to meet Gillian at LAP at 5:25. This has been a pivot point so we'll see A. If she arrives, and B. If her intentions to go sailing for two weeks have changed at all. The markets waterfall continues...
It is clear that this panic is a cover for the financial collapse that began in September when the repo market seized up. It is 2008 all over again but much bigger and in drag.
I spent the day organising and cleaning. This has been an ongoing project for days, but with G arriving today, I have a deadline. In the end, I put everything I don't know what to do with into a box and put it back into a locker and was as done as I ever am. I summoned Uber at 4:45 and rode to the airport. Uber is shut down in the US and Canada but carrying on as ever here. We ride with the windows open in La Paz anyhow, if that matters. I arrived at LAP and walked in and over to arrivals. LAP is a very small airport. The plane was a half-hour early and literally five minutes later G walked out, wearing a mask. We called Uber and rode back to the marina. I showed her around and made spaghetti for supper. The we walked down the Malecon to Centro and back, watched a bit of Republic of Doyle, and she was off to her bunk. She had just travelled for 30 hours. I turned in shortly after. I may not have gone where I intended to go,
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I slept well and woke at six. Every day is a new day and I examine the world around me every morning for a few hours to reevaluate my thoughts and my options. These days things are changing rapidly. First thing today, I checked email and received this from a reader I respect and who offers good insights. I have a comment on your really unfortunate message here (and on Facebook) a day or so ago that people should try to get the virus now to avoid getting it later. I'll let "Beau" do the talking on my behalf... stay safe, Allen. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEmylMus014 I was a bit tongue in cheek with that post, but not everyone has a sense of irony. I always figure someone has to take the other side of anything that is presented as fact, a so-called devil's advocate. My son, Jon, understands. We're both programmers and as such have a totally different sense of humour and way of understanding the world than most.
I watched the video and don't know what to say other than what I am seeing around me is an widening gap between those with a collectivist viewpoint and those with individualist bent.
I also see everyone, as usual, promoting their personal 'book'. Beau is definitely talking his. He sees himself in the crosshairs and he may be.
Altruistic tendencies tend to be very strong as well, and the two impulses can coexist and even be congruent when things are good, but start to diverge when the SHTF and can eventually be in direct conflict. Some people realise that the game has changed earlier than others and adapt. Others just do what they are told to the end.
Sitting here on a boat in Baja California Sur, I am conflicted. What is best for me? What is best for my friends, What is best for my community? Which community? I see this as a lottery, and personally, I don't buy lottery tickets. I bought one once. It did not work and that was it. The odds in this lottery are not as extremely long as for MaxMillion, but they are still pretty long. If this were horse racing, survival is almost a sure thing.
At 6:45 I'm going to have breakfast. G is still asleep and her door is closed. I'm guessing she will be down for a while yet. Dow futures are down again. In spite of appeals to be nice and to buy or hold (at least until they get out) from authorities, it is every man woman, widow and orphan for himself. Sauve qui peut. The markets are we see what people really think. Take your losses early. G got up and at ten we started for the dentist, walked to centro and realised we had two hours. We went to a drug store to get azitromicina, the same drug that did me so much good earlier and which G says she used to finally defeat the pneumonia she had in February. She is convinced she had the same disease as the Wuflu but in the US. She is a very experienced nurse who has worked all over the world in various capacities, so who am I to argue? So, should I rush back to Canada and take the real risk of infection in the airports and planes or cruise the Sea with a nurse? Problem is that she intends to leave on the 28th and I may not be able to return to Canada for a month. Every day the prospects look different, so we will see. With that much time before my appointment, we took a collectivo to the bank, went to Chedraui and provisioned, went to the boat, then back to the dentist. The tooth took two hours and then we went looking for another pharmacy, bought a slice of pizza and found ourselves at the museum. So, we went in and spent an hour, then walked down the street and stopped for ice cream. A collectivo stopped near us so we got on and went for a long ride around town and got off near Centro again. We began walking home, but my foot had a sore from a rubbing strap and I called Uber to take us the rest of the way. We had a rest, then we had supper and we caught Uber back to Chedraui, returning to the boat by eight. All right everyone, line up alphabetically
according to your height.
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A friend sent me an email note pointing out that travel health
insurance may exclude pandemics. Hmmmm.
In
the process, I troubleshot the solar vent I had taken off and found
the motor is shot. The commutator
brushes are worn out and are not replaceable. Too bad, because
for a $2 toy motor a $250 US vent is shot. 
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